Forex Esta Semana

Mejor comercio de divisas esta semana

Mi oh mi Reaper acaba de encontrar este comercio de forex hoy. Es nuestro mejor comercio de divisas de la semana.

Le damos nuestros sombreros, Reaper. Comenzó la semana por encontrar algunos comercios muy sabrosos. Y luego ayer encontró este monstruo-de-un comercio de 198 pip. Es tan perfecto que tenía que ser nuestro mejor comercio de divisas de la semana. Las condiciones son grandes para los brotes en este momento. Y Reaper es como un niño en una tienda de dulces.

Cómo encontrar el mejor comercio de Forex de la semana?

Reaper está construido para encontrar grandes, explosivos movimientos de precios como el de arriba. Llamamos a estos & # 8220; rápido y furioso & # 8221; Operaciones de divisas. Vienen de la nada y despegan como cohetes. Usted puede hacer más pips de un comercio rápido y furioso que usted puede de diez comercios más pequeños.

Todo comienza cuando Reaper dibuja sus zonas seguras diarias en sus cartas forex. Si el precio se rompe a través de las zonas de seguridad superiores o inferiores Reaper está ahí esperando. Se abre un comercio y lo optimiza para obtener la mayoría de pips posibles antes de la ejecución ha terminado.

No podemos desviar nuestros ojos de la curva de balance de Reaper este mes. Es una cosa de belleza.

Tomar menos negocios para obtener más beneficios es clave

Los oficios de Forex rápidos y furiosos son el mejor escenario de cada trader de divisas. Ellos dan una gran cantidad de pips en cuestión de horas. Así que al final del día usted ha cambiado menos, pero ha hecho más. Eso es exactamente lo que necesita para mantener grandes ganancias en divisas. Los pequeños movimientos de pepitas de frijoles nunca son suficientes para mantenerse a la vanguardia en el largo plazo. ¡Cuanto más grande, mejor!

PD Semana de comercio áspero?

Incluso los mejores de nosotros pueden tener semanas. Si está buscando una pequeña ayuda adicional considere el uso de Reaper. Puede ayudar a diversificar su comercio y fortalecer sus defensas. Adjuntarlo y lo harán.

El evangelio forex para esta semana según Morgan Stanley

Aquí está la última nota del cliente de Morgan Stanley con un vistazo a la semana que viene.

Cortesía de nuestros amigos en efxnews. com. Regístrese para su prueba gratuita aquí

Enfoque del día:

USD: Compra frente a los financiadores. Alcista.

Esperamos que algunas medidas adicionales en el rally de riesgo actual, lo que probablemente mantendrá el USD apoyado contra los financiadores - EUR, JPY y CHF. Los datos económicos de los Estados Unidos han sido resistentes, aliviando las preocupaciones sobre una recesión en Estados Unidos. Sin embargo, con la Reserva Federal probablemente permanecerá en el banquillo por ahora después de la fuerte restricción de las condiciones financieras para comenzar el año, USD debería en el corto plazo perder terreno frente a FX de alto rendimiento.

EUR: Venta de EURUSD. Osuno.

Seguimos siendo EUR cortos en un horizonte táctico y estructural. A corto plazo, el rally de riesgo que hemos estado pidiendo es probable que la presión de EUR más bajo, dado que la moneda común ha evolucionado como la moneda de financiación del mundo de la elección. A mediano plazo, el euro debería seguir siendo una de las divisas más débiles del G10, dadas las expectativas de un alivio más agresivo de las políticas del BCE el próximo mes. (Para más información sobre el comercio MS EURUSD, véase aquí)

JPY: Baja táctica. Osuno.

La perspectiva de los activos es clave para determinar la dirección del yen. De hecho, con las existencias domésticas cayendo fuertemente después de la relajación de BoJ, los inversionistas japoneses necesitaron reducir rápidamente detrás la exposición de riesgo. La manera más fácil y más líquida de llevar a cabo una operación de este tipo es a través de los mercados de divisas, la cobertura de la exposición extranjera. Como tal, con la recuperación de los mercados de riesgo, esto debería limitar la escala de la cobertura extranjera.

GBP: Brexit en juego. Osuno.

Utilizamos cualquier rebote en GBPUSD para vender. GBPUSD ha visto su inicial "fase de choque" hacia abajo, ya que los mercados se dan cuenta de que hay una probabilidad no nula de un Brexit. La segunda parte de la tendencia bajista de la GBP se basará en los inversores en activos del Reino Unido que buscan ponerse colas de riesgo de cola, con la venta de la moneda que forma el método más fácil. El año pasado, los extranjeros se habían apilado en donas y fondos de riqueza soberana en bienes raíces del Reino Unido. Por último, una moneda débil puede aumentar las necesidades de cobertura, empujando la libra esterlina a 1,30.

CAD: Un descanso temporal. Neutral.

Creemos que CAD puede ver un respiro temporal en un ambiente de una Fed más cautelosa y signos preliminares de la fuerza en el sector de los no-recursos. Sin embargo, nuestra narrativa de mediano plazo permanece sin cambios. La gran rotación que el BoC ha estado esperando es todavía cuestionable. Los datos comerciales de esta semana serán clave para probar nuestra tesis; Estaremos observando no sólo el número de titular, sino también el desglose entre recursos y no recursos.

AUD: Recogida Carry. Alcista.

Las autoridades chinas han recuperado un período de calma, manteniendo el USDCNY relativamente estable. Esta moderación de la volatilidad y un entorno de riesgo de apoyo es probable que impulsen temporalmente carry trades. El primer examen de esta semana de los gastos de capital privado para el año fiscal 2016-2017 fue significativamente peor de lo esperado, pero el AUD fue capaz de mantenerse firme a través de ella. Esto sugiere que la dirección de menor resistencia en el corto plazo es para un mayor AUD.

NZD: Con Riesgo. Neutral.

La divergencia entre el aumento de los precios del mineral de hierro y la caída de los precios de la leche apoya un mayor AUDNZD. Las expectativas de inflación han caído a un nivel bajo desde 1994, apoyando una mayor relajación del RBNZ. El rally de riesgo sin embargo puede apoyar NZDUSD más lejos esta semana haciendo las operaciones para NZD corto en las cruces más atractivas. A largo plazo, somos bajistas en NZDUSD como los precios de la leche suprimida reduce los ingresos de los agricultores. Esta semana el ministro de Hacienda pidió más reducciones de tarifas.

Premier sitio de noticias de comercio de divisas

Fundada en 2008, ForexLive. com es el primer sitio de noticias de comercio de divisas que ofrece comentarios, opiniones y análisis interesantes para los verdaderos profesionales de comercio de divisas. Obtenga las últimas noticias de cambio de divisas y las actualizaciones actuales de los comerciantes activos diariamente. Las publicaciones del blog de ForexLive. com cuentan con análisis técnicos de vanguardia, consejos gráficos, análisis de divisas y tutoriales de negociación de pares de divisas. Descubra cómo aprovechar las oscilaciones en los mercados de divisas globales y ver nuestro análisis de noticias de divisas en tiempo real y las reacciones a las noticias del banco central, los indicadores económicos y los eventos mundiales.

2016 - Live Analytics Inc v.0.8.116 (t)

ALTO RIESGO ADVERTENCIA: El comercio de divisas conlleva un alto nivel de riesgo que puede no ser adecuado para todos los inversores. El apalancamiento crea un riesgo adicional y una exposición de pérdidas. Antes de decidir intercambiar divisas, considere cuidadosamente sus objetivos de inversión, nivel de experiencia y tolerancia al riesgo. Usted podría perder parte o la totalidad de su inversión inicial; No invierta dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Infórmese sobre los riesgos asociados con el comercio de divisas y busque asesoramiento de un asesor financiero o fiscal independiente si tiene alguna pregunta.

AVISO ADVISORY: FOREXLIVE ™ proporciona referencias y enlaces a blogs seleccionados y otras fuentes de información económica y de mercado como un servicio educativo para sus clientes y prospectos y no respalda las opiniones o recomendaciones de los blogs u otras fuentes de información. Se aconseja a los clientes y prospectos considerar cuidadosamente las opiniones y análisis que se ofrecen en los blogs u otras fuentes de información en el contexto del análisis individual y la toma de decisiones del cliente o prospectos. Ninguno de los blogs u otras fuentes de información debe considerarse como un historial. El rendimiento pasado no es garantía de resultados futuros y FOREXLIVE ™ aconseja específicamente a clientes y prospectos revisar cuidadosamente todas las reclamaciones y representaciones hechas por asesores, bloggers, administradores de dinero y vendedores de sistemas antes de invertir fondos o abrir una cuenta con cualquier distribuidor de Forex. Cualquier noticia, opinión, investigación, datos u otra información contenida en este sitio web se proporciona como comentario general del mercado y no constituye asesoramiento de inversión o comercialización. FOREXLIVE ™ renuncia expresamente a cualquier responsabilidad por cualquier pérdida de capital o beneficios sin limitación que pueda derivarse directa o indirectamente del uso de o de la confianza en dicha información. Al igual que con todos estos servicios de asesoramiento, los resultados anteriores nunca son una garantía de resultados futuros.

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Semana pasada y esta semana

Elección del editor

Los mercados mundiales y locales continuaron sus tempestuosas condiciones la semana pasada con el discurso de la presidenta de la Reserva Federal, Janet Yellen, ante el Congreso, destacándose entre los demás. En ella, Yellen testificó que el banco central estaba preparado para regresar a "normal & rdquo; Política monetaria si se produjera un empeoramiento en los mercados bursátiles mundiales.

Yellen agregó que la Fed todavía espera aumentar las tasas gradualmente este año a la luz del crecimiento constante y sólidos datos de empleo y advirtió al Comité Bancario del Senado contra la sobreestimación de la magnitud de la amenaza en el extranjero - más especialmente China - a la creciente economía estadounidense.

Otro gran motor de la semana pasada fue el yen con la estimación preliminar del PIB para el tercer trimestre de 2015 que viene en la tarde del domingo con una contradicción de 0,2 por ciento a pesar de la última política de flexibilización del BOJ. El informe del PIB también indicó que la demanda interna se había reducido un 0,3 por ciento, con una contracción particular en la inversión privada no residente que cayó 1,3 por ciento y la inversión pública se redujo un 0,3 por ciento.

Esta semana

La gran noticia de esta semana será el presidente del BCE, Mario Draghi, quien testificará el lunes ante la Comisión de Asuntos Económicos y Monetarios del Parlamento Europeo en Bruselas. Probablemente discuta los riesgos a la baja para la economía de la eurozona de la desaceleración en China, la inflación suave y las crecientes incertidumbres geopolíticas.

También el miércoles, el FOMC dará a conocer las actas de la reunión de enero, en la que la Fed dejó las tasas sin cambios y todavía dejó la puerta abierta a una caminata en marzo. En esa reunión, advirtieron acerca de los desarrollos globales, pero no mencionaron los riesgos. Las actas revelarán más datos sobre cómo la Fed ve la economía y donde el viento está soplando.

Cina Coren es un ex corredor de Wall Street y asesor financiero. Posee una Maestría en Comunicaciones y pasó muchos años escribiendo para medios de noticias internacionales y publicaciones periodísticas. Hoy, Cina pasa la mayor parte de su tiempo escribiendo artículos en Internet y blogs, y leyendo varios periódicos para mantenerse al tanto de las noticias.

Riesgo: DailyForex no se hace responsable de ninguna pérdida o daño resultante de la confianza en la información contenida en este sitio web, incluyendo noticias de mercado, análisis, señales comerciales y revisiones de corredores de Forex. Los datos contenidos en este sitio web no son necesariamente en tiempo real ni precisos, y los análisis son opiniones del autor y no representan las recomendaciones de DailyForex ni de sus empleados. El comercio de divisas en margen conlleva un alto riesgo y no es adecuado para todos los inversores. Como producto apalancado, las pérdidas pueden exceder los depósitos iniciales y el capital está en riesgo. Antes de decidir negociar Forex o cualquier otro instrumento financiero, debe considerar cuidadosamente sus objetivos de inversión, nivel de experiencia y apetito por el riesgo.

La semana de la divisa en la revisión

Los mercados de divisas esta semana fueron dominados por una continuación en el sentimiento de riesgo de montaña rusa que sigue conduciendo a los mercados teniendo su señal de movimientos de precios del petróleo. El petróleo subió esta semana, mientras Arabia Saudita y Rusia firmaron un acuerdo para liberar la producción de petróleo a niveles de enero. El acuerdo fue recibido inicialmente con decepción debido a la especulación de que los términos del acuerdo (otros productores de petróleo de acuerdo también) fracasaría debido a la obstrucción percibida por Irán. Irán sin embargo respaldó inesperadamente el acuerdo, para empujar el petróleo más alto aún como el optimismo creció. Los movimientos fueron templados sin embargo en las noticias de una acumulación récord en los inventarios del petróleo crudo de los EEUU que enviaron precios caer otra vez abajo. A pesar de la debilidad en el final de la semana, los mercados de valores, que han mapeado los movimientos en el petróleo, logró mantenerse a las ganancias para registrar una semana positiva.

Visión de conjunto

USD Enero FOMC minutos reveló un tono Dovish a la reunión, como era de esperar, con la Fed citando un deterioro del entorno económico desde diciembre con crecientes riesgos a la baja. Los minutos fueron vistos en gran parte como confirmación de las expectativas de que una subida de la tasa de marzo está fuera de la mesa. El IPC de enero fue mejor de lo esperado, manteniéndose inalterado frente a una pérdida esperada de -0,1%, con la inflación subyacente registrando su mayor aumento en más de 4 años.

El euro fue bajado esta semana debido a que los mercados de acciones subieron más alto con un mayor apetito por el riesgo. Los minutos de la reunión de enero del BCE respaldaron las expectativas del mercado de que una mayor relajación probablemente llegue en marzo. Las expectativas aumentaron aún más a medida que la OCDE redujo las perspectivas de crecimiento de la Eurozona 2016 a 1,4%, desde el 1,8% previo.

La libra esterlina fue fuertemente pesada sobre esta semana por un conjunto de cifras de inflación más débiles de lo esperado en enero, seguido por un aumento en el desempleo. La moneda británica también está bajo presión mientras que las preocupaciones de "Brexit" se construyen con el PM BRITÁNICO Cameron que participa actualmente en una cumbre de dos días del "haga o que rompa" para asegurar mejores términos para la calidad de miembro del Reino Unido de la UE. Los mercados están anticipando una fuerte debilidad de la libra esterlina si se produce una salida del Reino Unido de la Eurozona.

JPY A pesar de la recuperación del apetito por el riesgo esta semana, el yen japonés continuó durante toda la semana, mientras los especuladores siguen jugando al pollo con el BOJ. El gobernador de BPJ, Kuroda, pidió esta semana una acción coordinada de los bancos centrales para estabilizar los mercados mundiales, y sus comentarios se adelantan a la reunión del G20 que se celebrará a finales de este mes.

AUD Junto con la fortaleza del Dólar, el Dólar Australiano se encontró bajo presión esta semana, ya que la tasa de desempleo inesperadamente aumentó. Las condiciones laborales resilientes han sido la columna vertebral de la visión alcista de AUD durante los últimos meses, a pesar de debilitar la inflación, y este desarrollo golpea el corazón de esta perspectiva.

CAD Una recuperación en el Petróleo esta semana reforzó el Dólar Canadiense, que mejoró en general, apoyado además por un conjunto de cifras de inflación más fuertes de lo esperado en enero, templando las expectativas de una mayor relajación del BOC.

Forex: las oportunidades clave de esta semana

Resumen Diario del Mercado FX 03.07.16

Ha sido un comienzo interesante para otra semana ocupada en el mercado de divisas. No hubo informes económicos de Estados Unidos publicados esta mañana, pero el aumento en los precios de las materias primas y los comentarios positivos de funcionarios de la Reserva Federal dieron a los inversores mucho que pensar. Los precios del petróleo subieron casi un 6% hoy con el crudo WTI subiendo a su nivel más alto hasta la fecha. Además del petróleo, el precio del oro, la plata, el cobre y el mineral de hierro también se extendió más alto, allanando el camino para las ganancias en los dólares canadiense y australiano. Pero las ganancias en estas monedas deberían haber sido más fuertes dada la magnitud del aumento en los precios de las materias primas. Los informes económicos de Estados Unidos de la semana pasada, mejores de lo esperado, dieron a los inversionistas la esperanza de que la historia de demanda global no es tan débil como temían a principios de año. También hay esperanza de que la OPEP oficialmente congelará la producción - mientras que varios países acordaron hacerlo el mes pasado, Irán necesita venir a bordo para que el plan tome efecto. Sin embargo, la reciente recuperación de los precios de los productos básicos debería hacer que los políticos se preocupen menos por la baja inflación. De hecho, eso fue exactamente lo que escuchamos hoy de la vicepresidenta de la Fed, Fischer, quien dijo que "podríamos estar viendo primeros movimientos de inflación más alta". Si los precios del petróleo se estabilizan cerca de estos niveles, habrá menos necesidad de una política monetaria más fácil.

Por supuesto, la Fed está en la pista para apretar y no aflojar por lo que el movimiento en el petróleo junto con el comentario de Fischer de que los EE. UU. está en la "vecindad de pleno empleo" sugiere que mantendrá un sesgo hawkish después de dejar las tasas sin cambios este mes. También escuchamos al Presidente de la Fed, Brainard, y aunque expresó su preocupación por el lento crecimiento del empleo y de los salarios, también cree que el mercado de trabajo está mostrando fortaleza continua y que la inflación debería subir si los precios del petróleo se estabilizan. Así que aunque no hay muchos datos estadounidenses sobre el calendario esta semana, estas opiniones deberían limitar las pérdidas en USD / JPY y mantener al par confinado dentro de un rango de negociación estrecho.

Se espera que el BCE alivie la política monetaria esta semana, pero el euro se niega a caer, lo que lleva a muchos inversores a preguntarse si el alivio ha sido completamente fijado. El mercado espera que el banco central rebaje la tasa de depósito Diciembre), pero hay muy poco consenso sobre las acciones que podrían tomar. El BCE experimentó las consecuencias de la baja entrega el año pasado y querrá evitar una decisión que podría apretar EUR / USD más alto, socavando los efectos del estímulo. Además de reducir la tasa de depósito, el BCE podría aumentar la cantidad de activos adquiridos por mes, extender la fecha de finalización de la compra de bonos e incluso introducir nuevos TLTRO. Puesto que los analistas están pronosticando un aumento en el programa QE de cualquier lugar de cero a 20 mil millones de euros, hay un montón de espacio para la sorpresa. Además Mario Draghi podría hablar de hacer más en el próximo año que también podría afectar la forma en el comercio de euros. Por lo tanto, aunque estamos de acuerdo en que los inversionistas han cotizado en un recorte de 10pb en los depósitos, hay mucho más que el BCE podría hacer para debilitar el euro.

Mientras tanto, el alza de 5.6% en los precios del petróleo envió USD / CAD a un nuevo mínimo de 3 meses. De hecho en los últimos 9 días de negociación, apenas hemos visto un rally en USD / CAD. Si el petróleo extiende sus ganancias a $ 40 el barril, veremos USD / CAD por debajo de 1.32. El último aumento en los precios del petróleo, junto con las recientes mejoras en los datos canadienses, deberían mantener bajo presión el USD / CAD. Cuando el Banco de Canadá se reunió por última vez, el Banco de Canadá dejó las tasas sin cambios con el gobernador Poloz sonando sorprendentemente optimista. No estaba preocupado por una recesión global y cree que el débil dólar canadiense ayudará al crecimiento. Poloz también se mostró alentado por la capacidad de recuperación y flexibilidad de la economía y, en lugar de lamentarse por el rápido descenso de la moneda, dijo que una nueva caída rápida podría impulsar la inflación. Este mes tiene aún menos que preocuparse por el petróleo cerca de 35 dólares por barril, el crecimiento del PIB se acelera y los precios al consumidor suben, pero Canadá no está fuera de peligro, ya que el gasto del consumidor y las condiciones del mercado de trabajo siguen siendo débiles. USD / CAD ha encontrado soporte por encima de la SMA de 20 días en 1.3285, pero es probable que este nivel se rompa.

Mientras que el dólar australiano flotaba hacia arriba en la parte posterior de los precios más fuertes del oro, del cobre y del mineral de hierro, el dólar de Nueva Zelandia cayó agudamente con esta divergencia que conduce AUD / NZD sobre 1.10. Ambas monedas son vulnerables a los números de comercio chino de esta noche, pero el dólar de Nueva Zelanda borró sus ganancias anteriores después de que Fonterra bajó su pronóstico de precios de la leche. Queda por ver si la RBNZ será influenciada por esta reducción. La última vez que Fonterra bajó su pronóstico fue en enero justo en el momento de la decisión de la tasa RBNZ y, sin embargo, el Banco de la Reserva no parecía estar particularmente preocupado por la caída en los precios de los productos lácteos, aunque es una de las industrias más importantes del país. Creemos que el anuncio de Fonterra podría tener un impacto un poco más en NZD / USD al inicio de la sesión comercial de Asia, pero más allá de eso, las pérdidas deben ser limitadas, ya que no estamos buscando nuevas preocupaciones de la RBNZ. Por otro lado, los números comerciales de China son complicados. Se espera que el superávit se reduzca con las exportaciones y las importaciones cayendo. Los inversores estarán observando de cerca para ver si la economía de China se desaceleró aún más en el mes de febrero.

Por último, seis días de negociación han pasado desde que hemos visto un retroceso en la libra esterlina. La incesante subida de la moneda ha sido provocada por los continuos intentos del gobierno de minimizar las consecuencias y la posibilidad de Brexit. Al comienzo de la sesión europea, el director general de la Cámara de Comercio británica, John Longworth renunció tras ser suspendido por decir que la economía de los Estados Unidos podría estar mejor fuera de la Unión Europea. Durante la sesión de Estados Unidos, el gobernador del Banco de Inglaterra, Carney, dio a conocer planes para mantener los mercados estables cerca del referéndum de la UE. El mes pasado, Carney indicó que las contramedidas estaban siendo discutidas en la preparación para el referéndum. Hoy se han dado a conocer estos planes, ya que pretenden ofrecer 3 operaciones de repo a largo plazo entre el 14 de junio y el 28 de junio. Esto garantizará liquidez en los mercados y ofrecerá flexibilidad a los bancos ya otras grandes instituciones. Teniendo esto en cuenta, seguimos siendo escépticos con respecto al rally GBP / USD porque la fuerte caída en el índice de manufactura PMI apunta a una menor producción industrial y al comercio. A la luz de esto creemos que el 50-SMA cerca de 1.4362 debe mantenerse.

CBN puede relajar política de la divisa esta semana

Economistas del FMI revisan políticas de FG

Por Jide Ajani, Emeka Anaeto, Umoru Henry, Levinus Nwabughiogu y Joseph Erunke

Debido a las presiones y la amonestación abierta por el Presidente del Senado Bukola Saraki, e intensificada por el Director Gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional, el FMI, la Sra. Christine Lagarde, el Banco Central de Nigeria, CBN, puede relajar su política de divisas esta semana.

Sunday Vanguard se enteró de que aparte de la llamada hecha al aire libre por el presidente del Senado durante la audiencia de la semana pasada con el jefe del FMI en el CBN, también se ha revelado que Lagarde señaló, en términos inequívocos, los peligros de la política forex continuada instituida Por el banco de ápice en los últimos ocho meses.

Durante las sesiones a puerta cerrada entre el gobernador del CBN, Godwin Emefiele y el presidente del Senado Saraki, por un lado, y otro con la señora Lagarde, parecía haber una tendencia hacia una posición consensual en la política restrictiva de divisas.

Aunque Emefiele, de acuerdo con una fuente en las sesiones privadas, no dio mucho sobre la posibilidad del banco de ápice de una revisión de la política, Sunday Vanguard se hizo creer en el fin de semana que a la luz de la esperada visita de economistas del FMI esta semana, La política puede ser relajada.

El mercado cambiario fue testigo de la introducción de varias restricciones cambiarias en 2015. La primera restricción notable fue el cierre del mercado oficial de divisas (subasta holandesa al por menor) el 18 de febrero de 2015 que tradujo a una mayor devaluación del naira a N197 por dólar de N165 Por dólar.

La segunda restricción notable fue la Exclusión de 41 ítems del mercado oficial de divisas.

Luego, en agosto, el CBN prohibió la aceptación de depósitos en moneda extranjera en cuentas domiciliarias.

Además de lo anterior, se produjo la reducción del límite de uso de tarjetas de débito naira en el exterior. Desde $ 150,000 por año el límite fue fijado en $ 50,000 por año por tarjeta de débito de naira. El límite diario de retiro de efectivo estaba fijado en $ 300 en el extranjero.

Durante el año, el CBN prohibió que los bancos vendieran divisas a la Oficina de Cambio (BDCs) mientras revisaba las directrices operacionales de los BDCs, y en el proceso, prohibía cualquier forma de relación de vendedores ambulantes de moneda extranjera (mercado negro) Y operaciones de rama.

Estas restricciones, junto con la disminución de los flujos de divisas debido a la continua disminución de los precios del crudo, así como la continua expectativa de una mayor devaluación del naira, condujeron a una depreciación consiguiente del naira en el mercado paralelo. El tipo de cambio del mercado paralelo de la naira aumentó de N179 / N185 a principios de 2015, para cerrar el año a N280 a un dólar.

De hecho, como un equipo de economistas del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), están listos para llegar a Nigeria esta semana, hay indicios de que el Ejecutivo y los brazos legislativos del gobierno pueden haber comenzado un proceso de comercio de caballos con el fin de hacer el 2016 Proyecto de Ley de Consignaciones, más aplicable.

Una fuente del ministerio de finanzas dijo a Sunday Vanguard que las conversaciones con la directora gerente del FMI, Christine Lagarde, que visitó los dos brazos del gobierno la semana pasada, han requerido enmiendas importantes al proyecto de ley, un desafío que podría plantear cómo podría ser el proyecto de ley. Legalmente retirado de las dos cámaras de la legislatura.

Pero la fuente del ministerio de finanzas dijo que el gobierno no planea retirar el proyecto de ley aún en espera de nuevas discusiones y entendimiento con la Asamblea Nacional.

Lagarde, al responder a las preguntas sobre el presupuesto de 2016, dijo a la prensa la semana pasada que "un equipo de economistas va a venir aquí (Nigeria) la próxima semana para revisar y auditar (el proyecto de ley) y tener una buena discusión con las autoridades gubernamentales para Realmente evaluar si la financiación está en su lugar, si la deuda es sostenible, si los costos de los préstamos son sensatos y qué estrategia debe ponerse en marcha para hacer frente a los retos en el futuro ".

El jefe del FMI mantuvo reuniones con el Banco Central de Nigeria, el Ministro de Finanzas, la Sra. Kemi Adeosun, el Ministro de Planificación Nacional, Udo Udoma, otros miembros del Consejo Ejecutivo de la Federación, EXCOF, el liderazgo de la Asamblea Nacional y los directores ejecutivos de bancos. También tuvo sesiones a puertas cerradas con el Presidente, Mohammad Buhari, y el Vicepresidente, Yemi Osinbajo.

Esta semana se espera que el equipo de economistas del FMI se reúna con todos estos funcionarios gubernamentales y muchos más, incluyendo a los líderes del sector privado.

Sunday Vanguard aprendió que las áreas de discusión para las acciones políticas necesarias y los cambios en el presupuesto de 2016 incluyen la generación de ingresos, el sistema tributario, el precio del combustible, la política cambiaria, la reducción del gasto recurrente, especialmente en lo que se refiere al costo de gobierno, Vivienda y educación.

Otras áreas de posible cambio en el contenido de la Ley de Consignaciones, aprendida Sunday Vanguard, también incluirán pero no se limitarán a los préstamos para financiar el presupuesto donde el gobierno federal ya había declarado que pediría prestado alrededor de N1,1 billones de dólares para financiar el presupuesto déficit.

Además, el equipo discutirá formas de mejorar la eficiencia del servicio público del país, la creación de herramientas para manejar el impacto de la disminución de los ingresos petroleros y medidas para reducir las fugas.

Además, el equipo proyectará medidas para abordar las entradas de capital extranjero, la creación de riqueza en los sectores de la energía y el transporte, las mejores opciones para gestionar las vulnerabilidades a corto plazo a los choques financieros económicos internacionales, así como estrategias para mejorar las políticas y fortalecer las instituciones.

También discutirán el marco para lograr un crecimiento inclusivo y sostenible, la reducción de la pobreza y la buena gobernanza en los niveles inferiores del gobierno, los estados y los gobiernos locales.

En declaraciones a Sunday Vanguard durante el fin de semana en el contexto de las preocupaciones expresadas por algunos observadores sobre el efecto de la intervención del FMI en las políticas económicas y fiscales de Nigeria, los principales economistas de Nigeria, el profesor Pat Utomi, dijo que era malo hacer un gran negocio de las visitas del FMI . Según él, "son visitas de rutina".

Afirmó, '' como miembros del FMI debería ser rutinario tener consultas. No debemos perder de vista el hecho de que vivimos en un mundo globalizado y que la mala gestión económica en un país puede resultar en la exportación de problemas a otras economías. Tales problemas que son exportables & # 8211; Como la inflación, el contagio de la venta de canastas envenenadas de valores como las crisis subprime que desencadenaron las crisis de 2008 o los déficits por cuenta corriente en Malasia y en otras partes de Asia que iniciaron el tsunami de las crisis financieras asiáticas. Y requieren algunas instituciones financieras supranacionales. A medida que la Guerra Mundial terminaba, las potencias aliadas acordaron en Bretton Woods que el FMI debería ser tal.

"Pero los países tienen la obligación de modelar sus economías y manejarlas bien. Donde sucede lo inesperado, el FMI fue puesto allí para ayudar. Todos contribuimos y podemos recurrir a los derechos de giro especiales, SDR, del FMI en tiempos de problemas temporales, pero nadie está obligado a ir allí. Los economistas de todos los extremos del espectro ideológico, la verdad sigue siendo que el FMI obtener golpeado cuando vienen después de que los líderes no han hecho lo correcto de la evidencia disponible para ellos, incluidos los informes de las consultas del FMI.

Al reaccionar también con las visitas del FMI, los economistas del FSDH Merchant Bank Limited, Ayodele Akinwunmi, dijeron a SundayVanguard que la visita del jefe del FMI fue fructífera hasta ahora.

Según él "el FMI ha endosado el esfuerzo actual del gobierno federal de Nigeria de construir una nueva Nigeria. Creo que su respaldo es positivo para la comunidad empresarial internacional.

'' Ella (Lagarde) también dijo al gobierno lo que se necesita hacer, como el tipo de cambio flexible, la eliminación del subsidio y la construcción de un amortiguador y el aumento del IVA.

"No creo que el aumento del IVA ocurra ahora. Pero la flexibilidad del tipo de cambio está a la vuelta de la esquina con la eliminación de los subsidios al combustible ".

En sus diversas reuniones de la semana pasada, Lagarde, había pedido un aumento en el Impuesto sobre el Valor Añadido, IVA, haciendo hincapié en que se ha convertido en un imperativo para el gobierno federal ampliar la base impositiva del país explicando que Nigeria tiene la tasa más baja de IVA en el continente africano.

Según ella, "la tasa actual del IVA está entre las más bajas del mundo y muy por debajo de las tasas en otros miembros de la CEDEAO, por lo que debe considerarse algún aumento".

Aunque el Director Gerente del FMI tuvo cuidado de no respaldar la devaluación del naira frente a las principales monedas internacionales, ella, sin embargo, instó al gobierno federal a adoptar una política monetaria flexible que sirva mejor al interés de los nigerianos.

Ella, sin embargo, advirtió a Nigeria contra la obtención de préstamos, señalando que estaba afectando al país en ese momento y el endeudamiento posterior podría dañar la economía del país a largo plazo.

Dijo: "En el gasto recurrente, se deben hacer esfuerzos para racionalizar el costo de la gobernabilidad y mejorar la eficiencia de la prestación de servicios públicos a través de los gobiernos federal y subnacional. También deben abordarse las transferencias y los gastos fiscales. Por ejemplo, continuar el movimiento ya iniciado por el gobierno en el presupuesto de 2016 para eliminar los recursos asignados a los subsidios al combustible permitiría un gasto más específico, incluyendo programas sociales innovadores para los más necesitados ".

Lagarde dentro de Aso Rock

Su informe que la tarde del martes discutible fluyó en consonancias staccato. Por un lado, vio una pasión por el bienestar financiero de Nigeria, ya que mostró menos de una preocupación fugaz a la causa de los pobres. Sin embargo, en otro plank, ella habló en alguna actitud del directorio que advierte contra políticas económicas tiesas que pueden tener efecto adverso en las poblaciones pobres de Nigeria y los países vecinos.

Sin embargo, mientras hablaba, ella anticipó una pregunta desagradable sobre los préstamos y rápidamente desalentó la mente de sus oyentes que su misión no era negociar un préstamo. Ella visitó el presidente Mohammad Buhari en la villa presidencial, Abuja el martes para comenzar su visita de estado de cuatro días a Nigeria.

Primero déjeme dejar claro que no estoy aquí ni es mi equipo en este país para negociar un préstamo con condicionalidades. No estamos en las negociaciones del programa y francamente en este momento, dada la determinación, la resistencia mostrada por el Presidente y su equipo, no veo por qué se necesitará un programa del FMI. Por supuesto, la disciplina va a ser necesaria, por supuesto, la implementación va a ser clave para los objetivos y las ambiciones de servir bien al país, para que sea realmente sostenible. Para una mejor parte de la información, Lagarde Insistió en la necesidad de flexibilizar las políticas económicas y la disciplina financiera en la ejecución del presupuesto de 2016 de Nigeria ", dijo el MDF.

Reconoció que la resiliencia y los programas del Presidente Buhari seguramente harían que Nigeria saliera de la lista de países prestatarios del mundo.

Pero lo que ciertamente le mencioné al Presidente fue que su lucha y su determinación de luchar contra la corrupción y su determinación de lograr la transparencia y la rendición de cuentas en todos los niveles de la economía son un tema muy importante del programa y una meta muy ambiciosa que necesitaba Ser deliberado sobre el cual él mismo se compromete definitivamente como lo indicó esta mañana y al inspirar a los miembros de su equipo ", agregó.

Por lo tanto, surgió de una reunión a puerta cerrada con el presidente Buhari con la participación del vicepresidente Yemi Osinbajo y otros altos funcionarios del gobierno que incluyeron al ministro de Hacienda, Kemi Adeosun; Ministro de Presupuesto y Planificación Nacional, Udo Udoma; Ministro de Transporte, Rotimi Amaechi; Y el ministro de Obras, Vivienda y Poder, Babatunde Fashola, entre otros, el martes Lagarde dijo a los corresponsales de la Casa Estatal que se debe asegurar una disciplina financiera adicional para que Nigeria trabaje.

El Presidente Buhari había dicho en parte a su huésped que acabamos de salir de las discusiones sobre el presupuesto después de muchas semanas de tomar en consideración las muchas necesidades del país y la caída de la economía con la caída de los precios del petróleo y la Previsiones económicas negativas.

Estamos trabajando muy duro y con el presupuesto como nuestro camino hacia adelante, haremos nuestro mejor esfuerzo para asegurar que nuestro país sobreviva a la actual recesión económica.

También hemos dicho a todos los jefes de los ministerios, departamentos y agencias de gobierno que bajo nuestra supervisión, tendrán en cuenta todos los fondos que ingresan a sus arcas. & # 8221;

El Presidente también reveló que el Gobierno Federal estaba revisando sus costos operativos, diciendo que había ordenado a todos los Ministerios, Departamentos y Agencias que redujeran sus costos generales.

La reunión del Senado

Para un lugar que había sido abandonado debido a un receso, la visita de Lagarde a las instalaciones de la Asamblea Nacional el pasado miércoles devolvió la vida a la legislatura.

El evento estaba programado para comenzar a las 9:30 de la mañana pero no fue hasta las 12, 33 cuando los Senadores Shehu Sani, APC, Kaduna Central, Kurfi Umar, APC, Katsina Central; Musa Kwankwaso, APC, Kano Central y Sunny Ogbuefi, PDP, Ebonyi South, entraron en el recinto donde los signos de posible comienzo dieron lugar a la ira y la desesperación por parte de algunos que habían tomado posiciones desde las 9am. Los senadores Francis Aliemekhena, APC, Edo Norte, Abdullahi Adamu, APC, Nasarawa West; Sabi Aliyu, APC, Níger del Norte; Danjuma Goje, APC, Gombe Central; Binta Garba, APC, Adamawa North y muchos otros vinieron a las 12:40 pm para unirse a los ya sentados dando así más esperanza de inminente comienzo de la ocasión.

La augusta visitante, Christine Lagarde, dirigió a su equipo a las 12:50 pm, después de lo cual su anfitrión y presidente del Senado, Bukola Saraki, entró a tomar su asiento poco después, junto con algunos de los principales oficiales del Senado, Ibn Bala Na’allah and the Deputy Majority Whip, Senator Adeyeye.

Exactly two minutes after Saraki entered the venue, and shortly after the less than two-minute introduction of guests, he began to address the audience, without first allowing the IMF chief to brief the house on her mission. He was very businesslike.

It took him exactly eight minutes to make his presentation, after which Lagarde immediately made hers.

At 2.12pm, the meeting formerly ended after which reporters and other guests at the event were asked to leave for a closed door session between the two parties to commence.

During the meeting, Saraki called on the Central Bank of Nigeria to relax its strict foreign exchange policy, noting that it was doing more harm to the economy than good. He insisted that the development had made small scale businesses to suffer unnecessarily. He called on the apex bank to introduce a more flexible foreign exchange regime and reduce the present restrictions on the autonomous market which does not allow business men to bring in foreign exchange or utilise what they have in their accounts as they dimmed fit.

Saraki then told Lagarde that “The IMF should support our CBN to bring in low interest loans to SMEs. We need to encourage entrepreneurs and make most of our new graduates job creators rather than job seekers. This is an area where we need the financial support and technical assistance of the IMF.”

He explained that his office has received numerous complaints from small business owners, complaining that their businesses are being threatened by the huge bottlenecks now involved in doing business.

On her part, the Managing Director of the IMF expressed concern over Nigeria’s debt profile, saying it was weighing heavily on the nation’s treasury with 35 kobo of every naira collected used for debt service.

While advising the Nigerian government to exercise caution in borrowing, Lagarde however observed that Nigeria’s debt profile was very low at 12 per cent of its gross domestic product, GDP.

She also urged the federal government to shore up its revenue drive by broadening the nation’s tax base and simultaneously reduce leakages by promoting compliance and enhance the efficiency of revenue collection.

Ms Lagarde also urged Lagarde also canvassed the need for Nigeria to eliminate the fuel subsidy, explaining that the subsidy regime was not only harmful to the planet but also not in the interest of the poor.

She said: “Indeed, fuel subsidies are hard to defend. Not only do they harm the planet, but they rarely help the poor. IMF research shows that more than 40 per cent of fuel price subsidies in developing countries accrue to the richest 20 per cent of households, while only seven per cent of the benefits go to the poorest 20 per cent.

“Moreover, the experience here in Nigeria of administering fuel subsidies suggests that it is time for a change—think of the regular accusations of corruption, and think of the many Nigerians who spend hours in queues trying to get gas so that they can go about their everyday business.

While analysing the current state of the Nigerian economy, Lagarde said the nation’s economic growth of 3.2 per cent in 2015 was the lowest since 1999, observing that it has the potential to record only a modest recovery in 2016.

She also observed that in the face of the drastic fall in global oil prices, Nigeria still has the responsibility of addressing its apparent infrastructural deficit.

“The outlook, however, has weakened. Growth in 2015 is estimated at about 3.2 percent—its slowest pace since 1999—and only a modest recovery is expected in 2016.

“For a country with a rapidly increasing population, this means almost no real economic growth in per capita terms.

Observing that Nigeria’s banks are well capitalised and more resilient than they were during the downturn of 2008 and 2009, Lagarde said the banks were “now beginning to feel the impact of the growing vulnerabilities in the corporate sector. This means rising non-performing loans, which will need to be carefully monitored and managed”.

She advised the Nigerian government to act with the resolve to significantly improve transportation networks as well as power generation, transmission and distribution, adding that Nigeria can be exporting tomato paste on a large scale, even as she lamented that instead of fostering export of commodities, Nigeria imports about half of its needs.

This Week In Forex: Review And Preview

This was a week when the markets were supposed to quietly await the conclusions of central bankers from the U. S. Europe, and Britain. The central bankers, however, seem ambivalent and mostly wanted to wait for the economic data before embarking on a new course. Most observers think the U. S. economy is the closest to a recovery of sufficient strength, which might result in monetary tightening. Bernanke, in his prepared statement and at his press conference, did not acknowledge there was a time frame for reducing his monthly purchases of U. S. bonds and other paper.

Despite his dovish comments, the bond market did not want to believe tapering of the bonds purchases would be postponed. Some believe Bernanke, who is in the last six months of his tenure as Fed chairman, is unlikely to alter his policies. Despite this, bonds rates have been appreciating. The U. S. 10-year climbed to about 2.75% before the NFP Report was released on Friday.

Earlier in the week, the U. S. ADP Employment Report forecast 200K new hires, but the NFP fell well short with only 162K. The employment rate did drop one tick to 7.4%, but this is a result of people dropping out of the labor force. There are now about 156M people in the U. S. labor force, but almost 90M working age people who have dropped from the labor force, unable to find work. That's further evidence the U. S. recovery is feeble, and the mix of full-time and part-time jobs is quite vexing. There have been 953K jobs created this year and 77%, or 731K, are part time. The pending insurance costs of Obamacare for those employers with over 49 employees who work more than 30 hours per week is given as the reason for more part timers.

When the all-important U. S. jobs number was reported well short of expectations there was then pressure on the USD. While understandable, we wonder about the strength of the pending global recovery when its leader lacks vigor, the Chinese economy remains suspect, and Europe is still in a recession. Recently, the eurozone has had a respite from their many debt-related problems. This does not mean they are solved; rather they are merely postponed. In a story from the Financial Times . courtesy of zerohedge. an IMF study says Spanish unemployment will remain high, at least 25% until 2018, another five years.

Also, Greece remains a problem. It was reported by Evans-Pritchard "that public debt will reach 176pc of GDP this year, despite the haircut already imposed on pension funds, insurers and sovereign wealth funds (Norway for instance) who loyally stood behind Greece after categorical assurances by EMU leaders that Europe would never let an EMU sovereign state default." Obviously, this is far short of the 124% debt goal to GDP in 2020, a tall order for a country that has seen its GDP contract 25% since 2007. It is obvious the Troika's rescue plan for Greece is not working. More debt will need to be written off, but any discussion of the possibility prior to the German election is not permitted.

The single currency works much better for some countries than others, but the problems have been papered over. The EUR/USD (FXE. UUP. UDN ) has been on a four-week rally, from 1.2755 four weeks ago to 1.3340 this week. We note from the COT report released Friday afternoon that the large spec reduced their shorts by about 17K contracts. The weekly candle for the pair is a doji, often the signal for a turnaround.

Recently, much of the news about the British economy has been positive. On Thursday, the U. K. PMI for Manufacturing beat expectations coming in at 54.6, greater than 52.8 and 52.5 from the last report. The U. S. HPI Nationwide was up 0.8% better than last month's 0.3%. The U. K. PMI Construction number was 57, a big jump from 51 last period. The pound was trading well on Friday, running up 200 pips, and traded late in the session close to the high. But for the week, the pound was trading down from last week's close. On Monday we get the important PMI for Services, expected to be 57.5, perhaps a hard number to beat. On Wednesday, the new BOE Governor will speak. The new COT report released Friday afternoon shows the specs are still big pound shorts. The pound short is 63.9K contracts compared to only 30.5K in the euro. The open interest in the euro is much bigger, making the pound short even more interesting.

The Australian retail sales report will be announced on Monday. Then, on Tuesday, the interest rate decision will be announced by the RBA. It is expected there will be a 25-basis-point reduction to 2.5%. Their unemployment numbers will follow on Wednesday. The total spec short at the CME increased to 95.2K as we traded in new low ground for the year. Open interest in the Australian dollar (FXA. AUD/USD) is quite large, approaching the OI in the yen. Trading in the yen was subdued for the week. It did strengthen vs. the USD to 97.57, but lost ground on Thursday. There do not appear to be any major reports coming next week.

The third arrow of PM Aba's plan, now that he has control of both houses, involves fundamental changes. That will drag the vested interest screaming into the 21st century. Change of this sort does not happen quickly. We will be looking at some of this next week. The COT Report shows specs have reduced their yen short marginally, but are still short over 110K contracts.

Click to enlarge images.

Divulgación: No tengo posiciones en ninguna de las acciones mencionadas, y no planeo iniciar ninguna posición dentro de las próximas 72 horas. Escribí este artículo yo mismo, y expresa mis propias opiniones. I am not receiving compensation for it. No tengo ninguna relación comercial con ninguna compañía cuyas acciones se mencionan en este artículo.

This Week in Forex – 1st Sep 2014

It is an important week for the Euro currency as all eyes are going to be on what the central bank is going to do this coming Thursday when the interest rate is due to be announced. As a trader, you understand that when central banks are “singing”, markets are “dancing”, so volatility will be the name of the game for this week.

The Euro, and especially the EUR/USD currency pair, has been aggressively selling since last June. President Draghi announced that the ECB (European Central Bank) agreed to act on interest rates and from the 1.40 level. In just two months, the pair is flirting with 1.31. From this point of view we can assume that the summer trading conditions did not apply to the Euro. Instead of ranging conditions we’ve had a full downward trend.

On Wednesday, we will see the important PMI (Purchase Managers Index) figures released in Europe. This is an indicator that will show us what an economy is doing and provide an early assumption on how a sector is performing, by showing the contraction or expansion of the market. We advice that you look into European Services this week. The Euro-zone economies are service based, therefore traders will have an early glimpse into what the ECB will do one day later, on Thursday. A central bank will focus on the inflation and interest rates. The lack of inflation is what threatens economic growth. The biggest fear of a central bank is deflation, as countering this in a low growth environment is extremely difficult.

As for the interest rate assumptions. We assume that the ECB is not going to act this Thursday as they still need to wait for the TLTRO (The Longer Term Refinancing Operation) effects. This will then show if the economy changed and if there are any signs of improvement. As with every first Thursday of the month, it is not about the interest rate but about the press conference that follows. Draghi is going to be questioned about the geopolitical tensions as well as the recent Russian sanctions. Everything that is currently happening in Ukraine has had a huge impact on markets and therefore, on European economies.

The all important NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) figures from the United States will be released this Friday. This is hugely important for traders to be aware of, because when the US dollar is moving, than the whole market is moving. The unemployment rate in the United States is currently at 6.1%, and it reached this level 14 months earlier than the initial Fed forecast. This says much about the strength of the US recovery. A positive NFP number will give fuel for the Fed to hike rates even sooner than anticipated, and therefore we could see the US dollar travelling across the board. This alone can have the effect of erasing any “Draghi” move on the EUR/USD from one day earlier, therefore this week has the chance of becoming one of the most important weeks in trading until the end of this year.

Artículos relacionados

No Analysis This Week

I was planning on releasing my weekly analysis yesterday but I couldn't really find much to say about the market. There have been some trades to take here and there but as an ultra cautious trader, I skipped them.

It seems like it was the right decision. Advanced course members haven't done too well on the few trades they took.

European mess plus NFP equals uncertainty

Well, this week started messy and it has not got much better. The weekends bad Greek caused some major gaps, some the size of which we have not seen in years. The news from Greece has only got worse since the weekend.

Add to that the normal uncertainty that you get the second half of NFP week.

Call me crazy but trading just doesn't feel safe this week.

The Sun may be affecting my decision

The sun situation is probably having a bit of an impact on my decision making process. As I write this I am outside enjoying a barbecue.

Enjoying some sun

I know, I have a dumb look on my face.

Sun is rare in the UK and 30 degree days are rarer still. As an Aussie, I really need some sunshine every now and then. So, my trading is taking a slight back seat to relaxing and enjoying the sun.

Lots of sun and market uncertainty means I am taking the week off :)

I am working on a major update to my free strategy though

The free price action strategy section is getting a little dated. I have already started work on a major update and rewrite. I will be finishing the update soon and releasing it all at once.

It will be a major overhaul of the free strategy, I will explain support and resistance in MUCH more detail and other things too.

So, there are a few exciting things on there way.

But they will need to wait until this sun is over!

Hi Nick, this is a bit off topic but wasn’t sure where to ask, blog, forum, email etc?

I have been re watching all the lessons, and in lesson 3.6 ‘making your plan dynamic’ from the free lessons section. you mention that we should adapt our trading plan to account for either trending or ranging markets using different methods. You suggest ‘master candles’, ‘trend lines’, ‘constant lines’, ‘scalp lines’ and ‘reversals’. You have covered reversals really well but I can’t seem to find anything on the others?

Learn Forex: EUR/NZD Biggest Loser This Week

Article Summary: A common forex strategy is to use follow strong trends. The EURNZD was one of the largest movers this week and is currently resting on a support trend line offering 2 ways to enter a short trade.

The EURNZD lost about 275 pips this week. Will this trend continue or is this simply a partial retracement of a larger uptrend?

I think the trend will continue down as both longer term trend and shorter term analysis suggests there is more room to move to the downside.

Yesterday, the European Central Bank held their benchmark interest rate steady but suggested future cuts may take place. This news sent the Euro selling as traders flee the lower rates. Additionally, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand released their monetary policy statement this week and suggested growth may reach 2.5-3.0% this year. As a result, capital moved into the New Zealand Dollar (NZD) causing it to strengthen.

Diverging central bank policy statements can create powerful trends as capital flees the falling interest rate and seeks out a higher or growing interest rate. Central bank policy statements like we witnessed this week tend to remain in place without much change for several months at a time. Therefore, a trading tip is to trade these diverging statements in the direction of the trend which would be to the downside for the EURNZD. Many newer traders miss out on these strong trends in cross pairs because they are focused on the majors.

Learning Forex Trading: EURNZD Retraces 55% for a Third Time

(Creado usando los gráficos de Marketscope 2.0 de FXCM)

As you can see above, the longer term trend is clearly to the downside so this week’s move may be the front edge of a resumption of the bear trend. Applying technical analysis to the chart I see a couple of interesting patterns develop.

First of all. the past 3 reactionary highs each partially retraced the prior down trend b etween 54-57 % and the recent swing higher is no different. If this pattern continues, new lows below 1.5000 may be on the horizon. However, we don’t want to blindly enter short trades. We need to pinpoint our entry and exit prices BEFORE entering the position.

Learning Forex Trading: EURNZD Rests on Trend Line Support

(Creado usando los gráficos de Marketscope 2.0 de FXCM)

A second interesting pattern is that a head and shoulders pattern appears in the later stages of forming. It is early to formally call this a head and shoulders pattern but if it plays out, then prices may work their way towards 1.4750.

Using technical analysis we can see the price is currently on top of a support line dating back to August 2012. In the past these upward sloping support lines provided a couple hundred pip bounce to the upside. We don’t want to buy in anticipation of the bounce, we want to filter our trades in the direction of the trend and use the bounce or a break of the support line as our opportunity to sell.

If prices bounce higher, then perhaps the 200 SMA will provide resistance near 1.5700.

If prices do not bounce higher, then a breakout strategy below the support line makes sense. A stop loss can be placed just above the swing high on a break. ( High Probability Breakout Trading in Forex 12.5 - video is 66 minutes with EURNZD Head & Shoulders pattern discussed near 57 minute mark)

Last week, we discussed how the EURJPY was the largest mover. yet this was possibly a partial retracement of a larger down trend. The currency charts suggest the patterns, but in the end, we never know where price is going to move. Therefore, it is important to place a stop loss on each trade in case the market doesn’t agree with your assessment.

Good luck with your trading!

---Written by Jeremy Wagner, Head Trading Instructor, DailyFX Education

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Trade the News This Week!

Posted 5 years ago | 5:27 AM | 19 December 2010 1 Comment

The holiday season is upon us, which means that most traders are off enjoying their vacations and that liquidity is slowly drying up. As I pointed out a couple of days ago, this means that a single piece of data could potentially result in a strong one-way move. There are still a bunch of catalysts on the economic schedule for this week so let’s take a look at which reports could rock the markets in the next few days.

Hollers from the Central Banks

The Reserve Bank of Australia and the Bank of Japan will be participating in the season of giving when they share their monetary policy meeting minutes this week.

The RBA will print its monetary policy meeting minutes on Tuesday at 12:30 am GMT. Recall that the RBA left its interest rates at 4.75% in December, so the report would probably show optimism for the economy in the near-term, with lingering concerns on the Euro zone’s debt problems.

Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan will also make headlines on Tuesday when it releases its interest rate decision and conducts a press conference on the same day. Many expect the BOJ to keep its interest rates at rock bottom at less than 0.1% as the yen’s rapid appreciation and global debt concerns continue to plague its markets.

In its interest rate decision last month, the BOJ detailed its plans to inject money in the economy. We heard about its plans to buy government bonds, exchange-traded funds, and the like. Will it increase its efforts this month, or will it just wish the markets a merry Christmas? Stick around to find out!

GDP: Economic Report Cards

New Zealand’s quarterly GDP

On Wednesday, New Zealand is scheduled to publish its GDP for Q3, which, according to RBNZ Governor Allan Bollard, should show a growth of around 0.8% quarter-on-quarter. That’s quite a bold prediction considering that Q2 only grew by 0.2%, far below the 0.9% growth the central bank had predicted.

This release is particularly interesting to catch because it comes with significant downside risks.

First, July and August both posted retail sales well below expectations. Adding to that, New Zealand’s trade deficit expanded rapidly during the third quarter and failed to match any of the optimistic figures forecasted. As you know, private consumption and net exports are huge contributors to GDP, so it’s only natural to expect GDP to fall short just as its components had.

In any case, be sure to tune in at 9:45 pm GMT on Wednesday. You don’t want to miss an opportunity to bag massive pips, do you? I thought so!

Canada’s monthly GDP

On Thursday at 1:30 pm GMT Canada will be publishing its own monthly GDP figures, right before the world takes off to celebrate the holidays. In the last four reports, we witnessed Canada’s GDP rise and fall month to month. Most recently, it posted a 0.1% decline in September.

What will it be this time around? Remember, weak demand from the U. S. its largest trading partner, has been a pain in the neck for Canada’s export-oriented economy, so it’s hard to imagine a strong GDP figure.

But take note that since this report is published on a monthly basis, it tends to have a milder impact compared to quarterly GDP reports. That being said, you might be interested in trading Canadian retail sales and CPI data as well.

At 12:00 pm GMT on Tuesday, we’ll see if inflation picked from last month’s 0.4% month-on-month increase. The CPI has been trending up since August. The question is if it can sustain this momentum and give the BOC more reason to hike rates.

We’ll also have the retail sales data on tap on Tuesday. If October can surpass September’s 0.6% increase, then CAD may find reason to rally. Don’t forget – the retail sales report is the primary gauge of consumer spending, which contributes to GDP, so this release might just give us a clue on how the GDP report will turn out the following day.

Data from Good Ole Uncle Sam

Y’all know how the U. S. economic reports tend to rock the markets so better stay on your toes when Uncle Sam releases its housing data and durable goods orders this week.

Housing Market Reports

Let’s start with the reports from the U. S. housing market. Home sales reports are usually considered leading indicators of economic activity because home-buying is often followed by more purchases. A home ain’t a home without furniture, appliances, and a well-stocked fridge, right?

That’s why you need to stay tuned for the release of the existing home sales report on Wednesday 3:00 pm GMT and the new home sales report on Thursday 3:00 pm GMT. Upbeat figures are expected for these reports since existing home sales are projected to climb from 4.43 million in November to 4.73 million in December while new home sales could rise from 283,000 to 300,000 during the month.

Durable Goods Orders

Another important set of reports from the U. S. is the durable goods orders and its core version, which are due Thursday 1:30 pm GMT. After sliding down by 3.4% in October, durable goods are expected to post a smaller decline of 0.5% in November. Meanwhile, core durable goods are estimated to rebound by 1.6% after its 2.7% drop in October.

Rising orders for durable goods such as automobiles, appliances, and computers, imply that manufacturers will have to step up production in order to meet increasing demand. This means that strong figures would be good for future economic activity while weak readings would spell meager prospects for the economy. If you’ve been paying attention in the Fundamental Analysis lesson in the School of Pipsology. you’d know what this means for the U. S. dollar!

So before you take off on your well-deserved vacation from the markets, don’t pass up the chance to grab more pips this week. Oh, before I forget, y’all might wanna stay tuned for some special holiday surprises I have in store!

Como lo que has leído?

FOREX CRISIS: Naira may crash further this week

Banks have recorded near zero foreign currency deposit inflow from high net-worth individuals indicating that their domiciliary account customers are staying cautious on the reversal of foreign currency deposit ban by Central Bank of Nigeria, CBN, early last week.

The development has sustained scarcity of foreign exchange in the market as well as the high exchange rate above N300/ USD1

CBN had hoped to buoy foreign currency supply from independent sources through the de-freezing of foreign currency deposits, and hence help douse the pressure on exchange rate which had accentuated last week.

Sunday Vanguard investigations last weekend, however, showed that only low-end domiciliary account holders responded to the policy with a few dollar deposits, a situation which prompted some of the banks to send out marketing sensitization to their customers to come forward and deposit their dollar with them.

Some of the bankers who spoke to Sunday Vanguard expressed surprise that much dollar did not come in during the week contrary to the expectations that customers who had inundated them with inquiry on how to deposit their foreign currencies did not turn up in response to CBN’s directive.

CBN had, mid last year, barred banks from accepting foreign currency deposits from their customers, a development that cut most of the customers napping, with foreign currency cash in their homes, with the attendant danger.

Last week, CBN reversed itself, allowing the deposits but it appeared the domiciliary account depositors have found alternatives.

Some of the bankers told Sunday Vanguard that some of the depositors now trade or invest their dollar cash with Bureau de Changes, BDCs, where exchange rates and returns on investments are far higher, not minding the risks involved.

However, they also explained that some of the bigger volume customers are finding options with foreign bank accounts.

Consequently, the expected inflow of dollar into the domiciliary accounts with local banks did not come as much as was anticipated.

But some financial sector observers said the high volume dollar account customers were skeptical about the policy reversal which was silent on withdrawals.

The CBN foreign currency deposit restriction policies had come with imposition of limits on foreign currency withdrawals, but the unbanning of deposits last week was silent on withdrawals.

This gap, according to the analysts, may have short-circuited the expected positive response from most domiciliary account holders especially the high-end customers.

Commenting on the policy reversal, financial sector analysts at Afrinvest Group said “CBN reneged on its earlier policy, announcing its decision to allow commercial banks accept foreign currency deposits but was not clear on whether foreign currency transfers or withdrawals can be made”.

They are also worried that despite the huge crash in value of the Naira against world’s major currencies, CBN maintained its official rate at N197/ USD1 thereby creating wider parallel market margin of about 50 per cent, the highest so far in the history of Nigeria’s currency market.

Consequently, Afrinvest stated that “this calls for a quick response of the monetary authority given the huge margin between the official and parallel market rates.

“With foreign reserves at lows of US$28.7 billion and oil prices at US$29.47 per barrel, a compelling argument to devalue the Naira at the next Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting cannot be jettisoned”, it stated. Analysts at Cowry Asset Management, a Lagos based investment house, expressed discomfort at the policy reversal which they believe fell short of capturing other factors that would have made it achieve desired results. They stated, “we are worried that the policies of CBN on the foreign exchange management seem to be made in silos as all the ramifications didn’t seem to have been factored in before the announcements, hence the frequent reversals and consequent loss of confidence by the business and investing public.

“We will advice the Monetary authorities to articulate an integrated policy on foreign exchange management taking into consideration the fiscal policy objectives of the federal government.

“We also think that CBN being the recipient and owner of 90% of the country’s foreign exchange earnings must evolve a channel for injecting dollar cash liquidity into the system, to meet legitimate needs”. Concluding its prognosis of the foreign currency market situation, Cowry Assets analysts stated, “this week we expect further depreciation of the Naira at the alternative market segments on aggravated supply scarcity buoyed by the closure of CBN’s window to BDCs”.

Three Forex Trades to Watch For the Week 1/31/2016

Each week I like to carve out some time during the weekend the scan my charts and get an idea for the forex trade setups I’ll be eyeing for the coming forex trading week. I’m going to try making more of a habit of publishing these thoughts and ideas, but I know it won’t be possible every week.

Without further ado, here’s what I’m looking at this week.

EUR/USD Provides Range Trading Opportunity

I made a big mistake in January trying to short EUR/USD with a target of 1.0650 — but the pair has been stuck in a range that even Mario Draghi couldn’t break with his hint of more QE. Take a look at the four-hour chart:

The two dotted blue lines I’ve drawn represent what I view as the upper and lower boundaries of the range, 1.0950 and 1.0800 respectively.

That being said, pay attention to the two gold trend lines. I had drawn both lines prior to Friday. As you can see, both lines were tested and held during Friday trading, the lower line as support and the upper as resistance.

I like trying to snag a small long position off the lower gold support line with a target of 1.0950 and shorting near the top of the range. Once the range finally breaks, we’ll be able to look to larger targets.

USD/CAD — Is it Time to Buy?

A lot of traders have been asking me about this pair since our previous trade that went on for a massive gain. So, is it time to buy this pair? Let’s look at the charts to answer that. We’ll start with a monthly chart (yes, monthly!).

The reason I wanted to start with the monthly chart is because there is an important trend line that’s only viewable from such a long time-frame. Notice the upper maroon line I’ve drawn. It dates back to highs put in during May, 2005. It then connects with highs put in during late 2008 and early 2009.

We closed above this trendline last month (December, 2015) and continued even higher this month. It would seem logical that we come back and test this trendline as support. So let’s look at where that comes in:

Drilling down to the daily chart we see there’s a lot going on here. First, recognize our maroon trend line, that’s the same one we were just looking at in the monthly chart.

Next, I’ve drawn a fib retracement from our most recent significant low to the last high. Price is currently threatening to push below the 38.2% fibo.

Lastly, the blue trend line support coincides nicely with the 100 bar moving average. In short, there’s a lot of support in the mid 1.3600’s — which is about another 300 pips down! All that boils down to is I’m not a buyer at these levels, but I’m not selling either.

I either want to see further declines or an extended consolidation happen before I think about buying. We’ll keep our eye on USD/CAD as the week progresses to see if either of these things happen and we can enter a trade. But I have a feeling we won’t be doing much in this pair this week.

GBP/JPY: What’s Next for this Beast?

If you followed my trade recommendation for GBP/JPY last week. congratulations… you bagged 400-500 pips in about 32 hours! So what’s up next for this crazy pair? Let’s dig into the charts and see.

Starting with the weekly chart, things are a bit complicated already. Price bounced before the 200 moving average and the trend is clearly up long-term. But I do not like taking trades off the 200 moving average. I’ve found that once price trades above/below the 100 hour moving average (yellow line in the above chart), it’s decision time: are we continuing the trend or are we reversing the trend?

Until that question is answered, I stay very vigilant. The conclusion from this chart is that we’re trading in a range until proven otherwise. Let’s drill down further and see what we can find in lower time-frames.

The first thing you should note in this daily chart is that we’re clearly in a downtrend. Unlike the weekly chart, we’re trading well below all moving averages. Also take note how the moving averages are aligned. The 50 (green) is trending below the 100 (yellow) which is trending below the 200 (red). This is the ideal alignment when looking for a classical trend.

The fib lines you see on the left are the same ones I’d drawn on the weekly chart. I’ve also drawn a fib retracement from the last leg down. Notice how price attempted to move above the 38.2% level but failed to close above it. There’s not enough evidence on this chart to enter a trade, but there is enough evidence to say “hmmm, maybe we should consider shorts”.

Let’s see if we can strengthen that hunch with more charts!

The 4-hour chart is clearly trending down, but we’re now trading above the 100 bar moving average. However, notice two things: we’re trading in a clear price channel that’s trending up, and the last move up was capped by that channel and the 200 bar moving average.

Much like the weekly chart, this doesn’t give us a ton of conviction for a trade, but it is interesting. Often channels like this, that occur in the opposite direction of the overall trend, are signs of trend continuations. These are also known as bull or bear flags (in this case a bear flag). If the lower boundary of this flag were to break it would be strong conviction to get short.

We get an even closer look at this channel on the 1-hour time-frame:

This is the chart we used last week to get long and bag over 400 pips profit. But we’re now trading in no-man’s land, sitting almost smack in the middle of the channel. If you’re a more aggressive trader you could take shorts from these levels, arguing that 172.50 offers some resistance and a good shot at returning to the lower levels of the trend channel.

In fact, that’s exactly what I did on Friday. I’m currently short GBP/JPY from 172.45 and targeting the lower bound of the channel initially. Why initially? I think we could break the lower channel and continue the downtrend.

Why GBP/JPY Could Continue the Downtrend this Week

You might be thinking, “but Travis, all your above analysis you stated that the picture is murky… maybe this is a bear flag, but we don’t know that yet!”. And you’d be right. But there are three things that make me believe that we may be heading lower.

First, USD/JPY is coming up against some serious resistance. Take a look at the daily chart:

USD/JPY broke trend line support in late December and had perfect follow through to test the August lows at 116. We’ve since rallied but the rally seems to be stalling out in the cluster of moving averages and just below the previous trend line support which is now looking like it’s turning into resistance.

My second reason why I think GBP/JPY may continue the downtrend is the weakness in GBP/USD:

That’s a heck of a downtrend we see there on the daily chart, and it doesn’t seem to be giving much of a retracement. If USD/JPY and GBP/USD both head lower it will greatly accelerate GBP/JPY to the downside.

My last reason… my gut. Don’t ever ignore your gut when trading forex. It can tell you when to get out of a losing trade or when to get into a trade you may have only little physical evidence to get into. Learning how to listen to your gut takes time, but it can be an invaluable tool. For me, it feels like equity markets are weak and could plunge further. If they do, it’ll take risk trades with it. The Yen is a classic risk trade.

I’m being very careful with my short GBP/JPY position and do not recommend it for beginning traders. There will be cleaner setups this week, so don’t feel like you’re missing out by waiting. If the trend does continue down there will be plenty of pips for the taking.

If you’re itching for a trade to start the week I’d look at buying EUR/USD as discussed above. I have a feeling GBP/JPY will provide opportunity this week and we’ll be waiting at least another week before being able to do anything in USD/CAD.

That’s all I’ve got on my radar this week. I hope you all had a great weekend and are as excited as I am to get a new week of trading underway!

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Last week was a good week in the forex market, which ended on Friday with the US Non-farm payroll data coming out. It actually came out well above the target and the consensus level of 165k new jobs, coming in line of 236k. So this was a big boomer for the US dollar, as it strengthened by 5.1% against the Sterling, with a brief touch at 1.4884 (over two and half year low there). Against the Euro we saw the US dollar perform very well again (1.2955), which really didn’t see much movement across the day, but it was enough. The US dollar also strengthened against the Japanese Yen.

Late in the day on Friday, we had Fitch downgrading Italy’s credit rating, and we are experiencing some uncertainties over the elections, along with the austerity measures that will or will not continue to be put in place going forward. Times are going to start being tense for Italy, especially when they head back to the world to try to sell some more bonds this week.

Also in Europe, we will see the conclaves starting this Tuesday, and it should be quite interesting for the Vatican City as they elect their new Pope, but more interestingly is in Ireland that would be doing a 10-year bond sale. This is the first time Ireland is doing that, since they asked for a bailout from the IMF. It will be interesting to see what the takeoff would be like, as it would be an initial bond sale of about €3b and they are hoping to get back to the market towards the end of the year full-time.

This would be quite a quite week for the Euro, after all the trials and tribulations last week. We expect the German CPI data on Wednesday, the ECB minutes from the last interest rate decision on Thursday and Friday would usher in CPI data from the Eurozone. Analysts expect both CPI data to come in unchanged, as inflation is seen to be unfolding across Europe and Mario Draghi is expected to come up with some rate cuts.

Looking at the United States this week, we actually await Retail Sales figures on Wednesday and it is expected to show some 0.5% forecast (better than last month). There would be PPI on Thursday, inflation is expected to rise about 1.5% and this is obviously quite a good sign for the US, as more people return to the markets. Also, we had the Michigan Consumer Sentiment figures again, and this is expected to show another slight rise. If we see the retail sales rise on Wednesday, then we could be in for some good numbers on Friday. This is a sign that the US economy is getting back on track again and consumers are starting to buy more again.

To the United Kingdom, we’ve seen that even George Usborne can’t keep the FTSE down at the moment, as it has gone to a 5-year highs last Friday. His budget statement next week, is going to be a highly anticipated one. A lot of folks are calling for more growth and less austerity to try and bring UK through.

5 Most Important Events for the Forex Market This Week

• Euro-zone Consumer Price Index Estimate – June 30 Eurostat estimates for Euro-zone CPI are expected to show that inflation accelerated at an ever faster clip of 3.9 percent in June. If CPI is indeed confirmed at this pace, the figure would match the 16-year high and would be extremely bullish for the euro, especially since European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet is already anticipated to hike rates by 25 basis points to 4.25 percent at their next meeting on Thursday. However, weaker-than-expected reading could lead the euro to sell-off sharply, as the news would give Mr. Trichet leeway to put off increasing rates until later in the summer. • German Unemployment Change – July 1 The German labor markets are expected to have improved in June, as the number of unemployed workers in the country is forecasted to fall by 15,000 after the index unexpectedly rose by 4,000 last month, marking the first gain in more than two years. This report will hit the wires at 3:55 EDT, and the news tends to spark quite a bit of short-term volatility, especially if the unemployment change misses expectations by a large margin. As a result, those trading the euro, especially against the US dollar, during the European session should keep an eye on the indicator. • ISM Manufacturing – July 1 The Institute for Supply Management is expected to report at 10:00 EDT that their survey of conditions in the manufacturing sector held below 50 – signaling contraction – for the fifth consecutive month at 49.0. In fact, data from the New York, Philadelphia and Richmond Federal Reserve regions all showed a continued deterioration during the survey period. That said, these are both very volatile reports, but given broadly weak domestic demand in the US, the risks are tilted to the downside for the ISM manufacturing release. The employment component will also be watched carefully as a gauge for Thursday’s Non-farm Payroll report.

• European Central Bank Rate Decision – July 3 For the first time since June 2007, the European Central Bank is widely expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to a nearly 7-year high of 4.25 percent. Indeed, ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet, whose primary mandate is to maintain price stability, said after the most recent policy meeting that they would consider hiking rates the following month, and that some policy makers had actually wanted to tighten monetary policy in June. Mr. Trichet’s comments came just as Euro-zone CPI jumped more than expected to a 16-year high of 3.7 percent, and while growth throughout the region slowing, the European Central Bank appears to be prepared to tighten monetary policy in order to combat rising price pressures. The rate announcement will come at 7:45 EDT and is likely to give the euro at least a short-term boost, but traders should also look for the big show at 8:30 EDT when Mr. Trichet will give his monthly press conference. With CPI well above the ECB’s 2 percent target, price stability should remain Mr. Trichet’s foremost concern. However, if he gives the slightest hint that a rate hike in July was a one-and-done sort of deal, the euro could actually sell-off across the majors.

• US Non-Farm Payrolls – July 3 The US Non Farm Payrolls report is one of the most consistent market-moving economic releases on any calendar, and Thursday’s result should be no exception. Indeed, this news release at 8:30 EDT and the number is notoriously difficult to handicap, so traders should keep an eye out for the NFP Preview on Wednesday in order to get a sense of how the data will fare. Our bias as of Monday: NFPs could fall negative for the sixth consecutive month, but if the unemployment rate dips down to 5.4 percent from 5.5 percent in line with expectations, the US dollar could actually strengthen on the release.

See the DailyFX Calendar for a full list and timetable of upcoming event risks.

Written by Terri Belkas, Currency Analyst for DailyFX. com

Questions? Comentarios? E-mail: tbelkas@dailyfx. com

USD Pending Home Sales (YoY) (FEB)

USD Balanza Comercial de Mercancías Anticipadas (FEB)

JPY Jobless Rate (FEB)

JPY Household Spending (YoY) (FEB)

JPY Retail Trade (YoY) (FEB)

JPY Large Retailers' Sales (FEB)

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The Forex Week In Review

Currency markets this week were dominated by a continuation in the risk sentiment roller-coaster which continues to drive markets taking its cue from Oil price movements. Oil surged higher this week as Saudi Arabia and Russia struck a deal to free Oil output at January levels. The deal was initially met with disappointment due to speculation that the terms of the agreement (other Oil producers agreeing also) would fail due to perceived obstruction by Iran. Iran however unexpectedly backed the deal, to push Oil higher still as optimism grew. Moves were tempered however on news of a record build in US crude Oil inventories which sent prices plummeting lower again. Despite weakness into the end of the week, equity markets, which have mapped the moves in Oil, managed to hold on to gains to register a positive week.

USD January FOMC minutes revealed a Dovish tone to the meeting, as expected, with the Fed citing a deteriorating economic environment since December with growing downside risks. The minutes were largely seen as confirming expectations that a March rate hike is off the table. January CPI was better than expected, holding unchanged against an expected -0.1% loss, with core inflation registering its biggest gain in over 4 years.

EUR Euro was driven lower this week as equity markets surged higher on an improved risk-appetite. ECB January meeting minutes endorsed market expectations that further easing is likely to come in March. Expectations were fuelled further as the OECD slashed EuroZone 2016 growth outlook to 1.4% from 1.8% previous.

GBP Sterling was heavily weighed upon this week by a set of weaker-than-expected January inflation figures, followed by an increase in Unemployment. The UK currency is also currently under pressure as “Brexit” concerns build with UK PM Cameron currently taking part in a “make or break” two-day summit to secure better terms for the UK’s membership of the EU. Markets are anticipating sharp GBP weakness if a UK exit from the EuroZone does occur.

JPY Despite a recovery in risk appetite this week, the Japanese Yen was still continually throughout the week as speculators continue to play chicken with the BOJ. BPJ Governor Kuroda this week called for coordinated action by central banks to stabilise global markets, his comments come ahead of the G20 meeting which is due to take place later this month.

AUD Alongside resurgent US Dollar strength, the Australian Dollar found itself under pressure this week as the Unemployment rate unexpectedly ticked higher. Resilient labour conditions have been the backbone of the AUD bullish view over recent months, despite weakening inflation, and this development strikes a blow to the heart of this outlook.

CAD A recovery in Oil this week bolstered the Canadian Dollar which improved across the board, further supported by a set of stronger than expected January inflation figures, tempering expectations for further BOC easing.

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James has been active in Forex markets for six years now and over the last two years has made the transition from independent retail trader to a full-time position with Littlefish FX as part of the trading and analysis team. Prior to joining Littlefish he completed the CFA's Investment Management Certificate to further his understanding of the industry. James has a strong interest in both fundamentals and technicals and uses both forms of analysis in generating and executing trade ideas, with trades generally lasting from a few hours to a few days.

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FOREX-Euro pressured ahead of this week's ECB meeting

* Markets expect ECB to take QE steps; Greece election also weighs

* USD edges up after Monday's U. S. holiday

* China 4th quarter GDP report awaited

By Lisa Twaronite

TOKYO, Jan 20 The euro faced pressure on Tuesday as investors positioned for possible easing steps by the European Central Bank as early as this week, while the dollar edged up on the yen after a U. S. holiday.

U. S. markets were closed on Monday for the Martin Luther King holiday.

Sources have told Reuters the ECB may adopt a hybrid approach that would include buying debt and sharing some of the risk across the euro zone, while national central banks make separate purchases of their own. The programme might be limited in size to 500 billion euros ($579.95 billion).

"We expect the ECB to announce the expansion of its asset purchase program to include European government bonds at its 22 January meeting and we recommend staying short EUR/USD as well as short EUR/GBP into the meeting," strategists at Barclays said in a note to clients.

A snap election in Sunday, with the anti-bailout party Syriza leading in the polls, also added to euro zone uncertainty and to pressure on the European unit.

The euro dropped last week after the Swiss National Bank stunned foreign exchange markets by abandoning its three-year-old currency pledge to cap its currency.

The euro was trading at $1.1594, down 0.1 percent on the day and not far from Friday's nadir of $1.14595, its lowest level in 11 years.

Against the yen, the greenback added about 0.2 percent to 117.75.

Later in the Asian session, China is scheduled to release its fourth-quarter growth data. Weaker-than-expected figures would likely sap investors' risk sentiment and could give the safe-haven Japanese currency a lift, to the dollar's detriment.

The Bank of Japan will also begin a two-day policy meeting on Tuesday. The central bank is set to cut its core consumer inflation for next fiscal year below 1.5 percent from 1.7 percent projected in October, sources familiar with the bank's thinking said.

With the BOJ's massive asset purchases already pushing Japanese government bond yields into negative territory at the shorter end of the curve, many board members want to hold off on expanding quantitative easing steps, but surprise action cannot be ruled out. ($1 = 0.8621 euros) (Editing by Eric Meijer)

Eur/Usd: Technical and Fundamental Forex Trading This Week

This week the Eur/Usd stayed in a tight trading range without breaking out. The range for the week was a high of 1.4380 and a low of 1.4178 So those are the key support and resistance levels that we all need to be watching this week.

This week is a holiday for the U. S. so trading will be light on Monday and you might want to stay on the sidelines because of light volume. I will be taking that day off as well I am going on a picnic with my family.

4HR Chart *Note Click on the chart to learn about our charting software.

I circled the support and resistance points where I drew my lines so you could see how I drew my lines.

I thought with all the news last week that we would see a break out. However the news was mixed and we are still not able to get a clear direction. I follow Jamie Saettele from Fxdaily on Twitter and He is thinking that the Dollar is Bullish as he writes on twitter “still real early in what is a long term usd bull”

I recommend following Jamie on twitter because he gives timely FX Updates of value and no spam.

So we still don’t know which way for sure the pair is heading but that gives us something to watch out for. So watch the support levels if the pair breaks that you will want to enter short.

The target for the pair after a break is 1.4050 so that could be a good long term trade.

Yohay gives the complete Forex Weekly outlook on Forex Crunch which I read to keep me informed of the important fundamental analysis for the upcoming week in each currency pair.

The only currency that broke out of the range this week was the Aud/Usd did make a breakout this week with the Australian Dollar reaching new highs. So maybe the Eur/Usd will follow that same pattern this week. I read one trader comment that he did not think the range would be broken this week because of the slow news week and the holiday but I am not so sure.

I also read a great article by Jay Norris about the difference between a “pro” and “wannabe pro’s” He stated 3 main points mindset, stops and experience. I wanted to share that with you because what you think is what you are. If you think you are a pro trader, you will act like pro trader. Read that article it is short and valuable for traders.

Since there is no new trade setups this week because we are still in the same range, I did not go over the setups in detail. So look back to the previous posts in the category Trade Opportunities on my blog to get an idea of how to trade the Eur/Usd this week.

Thanks for reading have a great holiday and if you have any questions or comments I will be checking hear to add updates.

Descargo de responsabilidad: Trading forex en margen conlleva un alto nivel de riesgo, y puede no ser adecuado para todos los inversores. El alto grado de apalancamiento puede trabajar en su contra, así como para usted. Antes de decidir invertir en divisas debe considerar cuidadosamente sus objetivos de inversión, nivel de experiencia y apetito de riesgo. Existe la posibilidad de que usted podría sostener una pérdida de parte o la totalidad de su inversión inicial y por lo tanto no debe invertir dinero que no puede permitirse perder. Usted debe ser consciente de todos los riesgos asociados con el comercio de divisas y buscar asesoramiento de un asesor financiero independiente si tiene alguna duda.

Weekend Analysis: A Path To Forex Profits

There are three basic reasons for doing a weekend analysis. The first reason is that you want to establish a "big picture" view of a particular market in which you are interested. Doing this analysis over the weekend, when the markets are closed, is helpful because such an analysis can be made when the markets are not in dynamic flux and, therefore, you don't need to react to situations as they are unfolding.

Secondly, the analysis will help you to set up your trading plans for the coming week, which in turn will help you to decide what trading plans you might want to implement. Remember, shooting from the hip can leave a hole in your pocket! Weekend analysis should be more akin to an architect preparing a blue print from which he will take the steps, based on his blue print, to construct the different aspects of the building he's designed.

Finally, the reason for undertaking a weekend analysis is to build a routine preparation method that will help to build a trading plan in the area in which you are focusing so you can establish the necessary mindset for the upcoming week. A good analysis is how you can "psych" yourself up for the oncoming trading activity. (Check out 9 Tricks Of the Successful Trader for more.)

Preparing for the Week Since this is a forex article, the emphasis is on the necessary preparation for trading forex during the coming week. But the preparatory steps can also be used and are helpful if you trade stocks, bonds or commodities. It's important to remember that none of the markets are actually separate, or trade in a vacuum. All the markets are interdependent, so that in a global economy the purchase of bonds, equities, goods and services all have an effect on the levels of supply and demand for currencies. Therefore, the price levels of the various currencies will vary when money flows around the world as investment searches for the highest and safest yields. (For a background, see our Forex Tutorial .)

Understand the Drivers The art of successful trading is partly due to an understanding of the current relationships between markets and the reasons that these relationships exist. It is important to understand the causative factors that are in play at the moment. Remember, though, that these relationships can and do change over time. Once you have a grasp on the existing relationships, then a study of price charts and the statements of the pundits, insiders, brokers and news services can be either reinforcing or ignored depending on your particular reading of the circumstances.

For example, a stock market recovery could be explained by investors who are anticipating an economic recovery. These investors believe that companies will have improved earnings and, therefore, greater valuations in the future. Hence they believe that now is a good time to buy! Or it can be that speculation, based on a flood of liquidity. is fueling momentum and that good old greed is pushing prices higher and higher until all players are on board so that the selling can begin.

A weekend analysis should be a basis for an understanding of the circumstances currently in play. These are the true fundamentals. Therefore the first question to ask is, why? Why are these things happening? What are the drivers behind the market actions?

Technical Drivers Many technical analysts believe that patterns or certain price levels on charts can also be the drivers of trader behavior. They believe that so many traders are watching for these patterns that they become self-fulfilling prophecies. There has long been a debate, for example, whether a Fibonacci level is a number that is a measurement of some natural force or whether it is valid just because so many people watch for the number to occur and then trade accordingly. Whatever the reason, there are certain patterns and levels that will trigger trader action. (For more, see Can Technical Analysis Be Called A Self-Fulfilling Prophecy? )

The News The news also fuels actions. Traders wait for the news releases to confirm or deny their hypotheses and then enter or exit their trades. If these news releases occur at certain technical levels then they attract even more trader activity and can increase the odds of a successful trade. Not every news release is always valid for timing a trade. Those releases that occur at specific chart confluences can have a more dramatic effect on the volatility of the market and will provide better trading opportunities. (To learn more, see Trading On News Releases .)

Setting Up a Trading Plan By doing a weekend analysis, a trader can prepare for the coming week and, depending on the type of trading he or she likes to do, such as scalping the news, or trading the five minute charts or waiting for a swing trade setup, he or she will have a blueprint to guide his trading. The old adage of "plan your trade – and trade your plan," is sage advice.

Chart the Indexes It is helpful for a trader to chart the important indexes for each market on a longer time frame. This exercise can help a trader to determine relationships between markets and whether a movement in one market is inverse or in concert with the other.

On the weekly chart of the USDJPY, Figure 5, we can see a triple bottom. Our analysis and radar is now heightened to a long USDJPY trade, which we can take on a shorter time frame, depending on our personal preferences. The longer-term charts are suggesting a possible bounce as the dollar strengthens, gold weakens and the dollar gains against the yen.

A trade could have been taken on the four-hour chart. In this case there is a 400 pip move to the upside. This was a high odds trade and easy to detect. Not every trade is so obvious!

If the move has already occurred, then the question is whether to chase the trade or not. Of course there are trading systems that buy on pullbacks into the trend and so on. Each trader has to determine his own methodology and test it over a period of time to determine the expectancy of the system. Consistency is what counts. (To learn more, read Devising A Medium-Term Forex Trading System .)

To Trade or Not to Trade There is a much higher chance of a successful trade if one can find turning points on the longer time frames, then switch down to a shorter frame to fine-tune an entry. The first trade can be at the exact Fibonacci level or double bottom as indicated on the longer term chart, and if this fails then a second opportunity will often occur on a pullback or test of the support level.

Look for the low hanging fruit and be patient. Patience, discipline and preparation will set you apart from traders who simply trade on the fly without any preparation. (For more tips, read The Most Reliable Indicator You've Never Heard Of .)

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forex predictions for this week # Best forex predictions for this week Online Forex Trading Service Us Forex Trading website forex predictions for this week

forex predictions for this week # Best forex predictions for this week Online Forex Trading Service Us

forex predictions for this week # Best forex predictions for this week Online Forex Trading Service Us Forex Trading website forex predictions for this week

forex predictions for this week # Best forex predictions for this week Online Forex Trading Service Us Forex Trading website forex predictions for this week forex predictions for this week # Best forex predictions for this week Online Forex Trading Service Us Forex Trading website forex predictions for this week

Artical forex predictions for this week

The foreign exchange market provides one of the most potent investment outlets available. Ever since the market came alive in the 1970's, many traders have found financial independence by simply playing a part. Currency trading, or simply forex, is an easy way to make a living once you get an idea of how everything works. It is a science of sorts that you can easily learn if you commit yourself to the process. Advantages of Forex trading Currency trading comes with many benefits. It boasts the largest trading volume which consequently enables the highest liquidity. It operates continuously, with the exception of weekends, and allows great diversification. The forces of supply and demand control the market, and owing to its large size, it's not subjective to control by any particular players, size notwithstanding. The competition it offers is as close to ideal as possible, so the small investors stand a real chance of profiting. There are a few challenges that the market faces, such as the low margins of relative profit, and the high levels of volatility. But the immensity of these hurdles is little compared to the gains that can be made. Admittedly, the forex market is m.

Forex Update 08.02.13 Most forex markets returned to their major trends this week as stock markets resumed their upward trend with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record highs once more. Strength was seen for the US dollar as US GDP came in above expectations and currencies such as the Aussie and British pound showed […]

Forex Update 08.02.13

Most forex markets returned to their major trends this week as stock markets resumed their upward trend with the Dow Jones Industrial Average hitting record highs once more.

Strength was seen for the US dollar as US GDP came in above expectations and currencies such as the Aussie and British pound showed continued weakness.

It could be said that markets have the best of both worlds at the moment, with the US economy showing strong signs of improvement, corporate earnings coming in above expectations and now the Federal Reserve promising to continue their super easy monetary policy for the foreseeable future.

Traders now see the chance of Fed tapering slightly reduced from a few weeks ago and this has given renewed impetus to risk on assets. The Fed’s mandate all along has been to wait for US unemployment to dip to 6.5% before tightening up so the US non-farm payrolls number today will be another important indicator for markets. With +185,000 jobs expected to have been added to the economy last month, that would take the underlying rate to 7.5%. Still a long way from the

6.5% target. There is therefore little that can stand in the way of markets at present time and risk on assets are likely to push on to even stronger levels over the next few days.

The Aussie dollar has come under renewed pressure this week that has taken the market south of the significant 90 level and towards 88. The pressure has come largely as a result of dovish comments from Reserve Bank of Australia Governor Glenn Stevens that represent a new direction for the Australian central bank. Stevens said that inflation expectations indicate that interest rates can be lowered from current levels and prompted the view that AUDUSD could fall further from here. This has caused traders to sell the currency taking the market to a fresh low of 88.89. With the RBA meeting on Tuesday, the door is wide open for another rate cut, and markets are currently pricing in a 78% chance of a cut. However, there is scope for a larger cut than the anticipated 0.25% so no trader wants to be caught holding a long position going into the meeting. The ideal strategy is therefore to short AUDUSD going into the meeting with the currency likely to drop further towards 87 or even 85. Once the meeting is over there may well be a bit of a shake-out and then the currency is likely to bounce back over the 90-92 level.

On a weekly chart, EURUSD is still near the top of a long term resistance channel with the pattern suggesting a multi month move downwards could be in order relatively soon. Anything over the 1.32 level represents a decent shorting opportunity for EURUSD as the currency has had trouble pushing on much past 1.34. Once the euphoria of summer is over, problems in Europe and Euro could rear their head once more and EURUSD could likely drop back towards 1.28.

Forex - The Week Ahead

Friday, April 30, 2010 - Friday, May 5, 2010

Event risk to dominate markets next week

Risk sentiment may falter further

GBP outlook depends on new government tackling the deficit

Greek woes will persist well past the weekend

Key data and events to watch next week

Event risk to dominate markets next week

The month of May looks set to start with an eventful week that may generate significant volatility. (N. B. Monday is a bank holiday in London.) First up, on Sunday, the EU has scheduled a press conference at which the final details of the Greek aid package are expected to be announced. The market will be looking for a 3-year deal totaling EUR 120 bio, at the minimum, as being sufficient to prevent a Greek default or funding crisis. Anything less and markets may express profound disappointment and take it out on the EUR. Markets will also pass judgment on the amount of deficit reduction being demanded of the Greek government, and just how credible its commitment is. The latest headlines suggest that an agreement is near, so we have to think the upside in EUR is going to be in play, at least in the beginning. Judging by still highly elevated peripheral Eurozone CDS's and bond yields, markets may simply conclude additional borrowing by deficit-riddled EUR members does not solve the long-term problem and quickly resume selling EUR. Given the still daunting deficit environment in Europe (see more below), we expect to see EUR/USD selling interest materialize in the 1.3400/50 area and will watch that level as a key resistance zone. The 1.3200/50 area is the critical downside support zone.

Downunder on Tuesday afternoon the RBA will announce its interest rate decision. A 3/4 majority of economists expect a 25 bp rate hike to 4.50%. The RBA statement will also be closely read for indications of further tightening down the road. AUD looks to have the most risk from a steady rate outcome (AUD/USD likely lower), but AUD appears to be more driven by risk sentiment than interest rate expectations at current levels.

US employment data will be in the spotlight next week, and the ADP report on Wednesday may garner more attention than normal, as it covers strictly private sector payrolls. Hiring of temporary government Census workers looks set to skew Friday's April NFP jobs report by about +125K, potentially accounting for more than half of the +200K consensus expectation NFP increase. The unemployment rate is expected to hold steady at 9.7%.

Thursday is Election Day in the UK and the results promise to be anything but straightforward (see more below). The most recent polls continue to suggest a hung parliament, which would then lead to coalition talks that could drag out for a week or more. The Civil Service will maintain government functions in the interim, but political speculation will likely keep GBP churning in the meantime. Overall, we're constructive on GBP once the election-related uncertainty is over and look to buy GBP/USD on further weakness down into the 1.5180-5080 area (see Weekly Strategy). The most Sterling positive outcome is for an outright Conservative majority, with the next most positive result being a Conservative/LibDem coalition. Any form of Labour-led government shifts the balance to a Sterling negative result.

Risk sentiment may falter further

This past week saw some extreme volatility across all asset markets, but by the end of the week, many recent range levels had held. The clear exception was gold, which is closing at new highs for the current advance. The demand for gold suggests all is not well in risk appetite-land and that in turn suggests that risk assets may see further downside in the near-term. In stocks, the S&P 500 posted both a weekly and daily bearish engulfing line as well as a close below the daily Kijun line. In FX, the JPY-crosses topped out before the end of the week and are showing signs of failure/rejection after attempts above the week's highs. In USD/JPY, a test above the top of the weekly Ichimoku cloud at 94.28 failed, potentially setting up a return to the cloud base around 91.90 next week. US Treasury yields also look to be extending their decline, closing at new lows (3.65% in 10 Year US notes) and below the daily Ichimoku cloud. A move higher in Treasuries/lower in yields is negative for USD/JPY and likely risky assets overall as it suggests safe-haven buying similar to what's driving gold.

GBP outlook depends on new government tackling the deficit

Tory party leader Cameron may have scored highest in the final televised leaders' debate ahead of the May 6 general election but opinion polls have continued to hint that he will fall short of winning an absolute majority. Disappointing for the markets is that with just days to go before the election a lack of clarity remains on how the budget deficit will be tackled. All the major parties have acknowledged it is a problem; none have provided sufficient detail as to how it will be dealt with. The performance of the pound over the next 6 months or so is set to depend on how the new government approaches the issue of the budget deficit; which at 11.5% of GDP could prove to be a poison chalice. The moderately better tone of the pound in recent weeks suggests that the market has become resolved to the prospect of a hung parliament. However, if this gives rise to post election bickering, sterling could suffer. The best case scenario for the pound would be a clear government majority when the polls close; Tory or Labour. On this scenario the squeeze higher in the pound could be sharp.

Greek woes will persist well past the weekend

The talks between the IMF/EU and ECB regarding the Greek support package are scheduled to be completed over the weekend. As a consequence the market has covered a few EUR shorts. Given indications that the size of the loans on offer will have ballooned well beyond the EUR 45 bln EU/IMF package that was on offer just a few weeks ago there is some reason for short-term relief. However, there is still a long way to go before Greece's ills are healed. The first concern is that the German parliament will not debate the topic of Greek aid until next week implying at least a week's delay before EU aid can be endorsed. This parliamentary debate could give the markets' cause for concern particularly since it comes just ahead of the May 9 regional elections in Germany and given that Greece is facing bond redemptions on May 19. The second issue is that Greece still has to prove it can live within its means and this will be a slow process. Since austerity will ensure Greece remains in recession this year, there is no guarantee that Greece will be able to tolerate continued belt tightening over the next couple of years. Yet without austerity, further tranches of loans from the EU and from the IMF may not be forthcoming. This means that while IMF involvement implies there may be no imminent threat of default from Greece, this risk and that of a potential EMU exit still persists further down the line. Meanwhile EU officials remain heavily obliged to try and stem fears of a default or devaluation in Greece since these fears would be consistent with an increase in contagion amongst the EMU region. Despite the inevitable round of positive rhetoric from the EU over the weekend, the EUR could remain under pressure for some time yet.

Key data and events to watch next week

The US has a plethora of top-tier events due up in the week ahead. Monday kicks it off with Personal income/spending, ISM manufacturing and motor vehicle sales. Factory orders and pending home sales are due up on Tuesday while ADP employment and ISM services are up on Wednesday. Nonfarm productivity, unit labor costs and initial jobless claims are on deck Thursday while Friday rounds out the week with the pivotal employment report and consumer credit.

It is another important week in the Eurozone. PMI manufacturing starts the week off on Monday while producer prices and German retail sales are up Tuesday. PMI services and retail sales highlight Wednesday. Thursday has the ECB rate decision and press conference along with German factory orders. German industrial production closes things out on Friday.

The UK has a busy week ahead. Monday is a holiday but Tuesday makes up for it with consumer credit, mortgage approvals, PMI manufacturing and consumer confidence. Thursday is the big day with the UK general election on tap along with PMI services. Producer prices round out the week on Friday.

Japan is very light with only vehicle sales on Thursday.

Canada has a light but important week up. Building permits and the Ivey PMI are due on Thursday while the employment report closes out the week on Friday.

There are some critical data points due down under as well. Australia sees home prices on Monday, the RBA rate decision on Tuesday and retail sales on Thursday. In New Zealand the only noteworthy release is the employment report on Wednesday.

Major Moves This Week?

Our resident ex hedge fund trader, Fotis Papatheofanous is winding down for Christmas but has a a few major moves on his radar and a BIG word of caution re next weeks Fed report.

Fotis trades primarily from fundamental analysis and then uses technical analysis to fine tune his entries, stops and targets. In this section. CLICK HERE you can find out more about him and his strategy. Also check out previous posts here in his blog to better understand the mindset and practises of a professional trader and analyst.

Here is Fotis’ post:

Hello, my friends! I hope you are well! As the Christmas holidays approach, it is becoming more and more difficult to stay focused and trade. At these times I am looking for shorter term trades before I also take a couple of weeks off.

Even if you want to trade it is becoming more and more difficult as liquidity dries ahead of the holidays. For example the trading range in the US dollar Index has become very tight, it has gone 14 consecutive days without a 0.3 percent or greater change, the longest period of inactivity since June 2007.

I believe the markets would be completely dried, if it wasn’t for the FED’s meeting next week. There is increased speculation that the FED will begin tapering this month. This scenario was further supported by certain FED Committee members and comments they made to the press. Richmond Fed President Jeffrey Lacker said December Taper discussion was a possibility, and that he wanted to telegraph further plans of quantitative easing. St. Louis Fed President James Bullard suggested a small Taper at the upcoming meeting could signal the FOMC’s acknowledgment of the improvement in labor conditions and still offer room to maneuver. And, Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher shook off any of his dovish misgivings of recent months when he said the costs of QE far exceed the supposed benefits, and he went on to suggest ending the program as soon as possible.

So basically the main scenario that was signaled on Monday was that tapering could begin next week.

The effect in the markets was that the strong trend in the USDJPY pair lost momentum and more sellers appeared at the High’s. Actually the JPY pairs gained momentum as this is considered a safe haven currency against a possible tapering. Eventually JPY strengthened as well against the EUR and that caused the EURJPY pair to retrace a little bit.

There was another story that dominated the EURUSD pair. Lead Senate Budget Committee officials. Patty Murray and Paul Ryan, announced a budget deal which will reportedly will help the US to avoid a government shutdown in early 2014, ease indiscriminate sequester cuts, and reduce the budget by $23 billion. That news caused the EUR to move higher against the USD, as this piece of news ads to the case for a December tapering.

How many times have we told you that it is the news that moves the markets!

From the above information, you can easily understand that the main theme recently that affects the sentiment amongst market participants is whether or not tapering will begin now or later in the year.

A Bloomberg survey show 34 percent of economists expects a reduction in the stimulus program this month (from 17 percent in November). The Reuters poll reflected 22 percent of Primary Dealers suspected an early Fed move. And, even a look to search traffic shows a surge in interest in the term ‘December Taper’ as ‘March Taper’ fades to nothing.

Now let me show you what I “fear” the most!

According to speculative positioning figures, retail traders recently shifted to their most bearish exposure on record (nearly 5 shorts per every 1 long position)!

We saw a very similar sentiment extreme through late October when the Euro traded towards highs of $1.3830.

However you can notice from the chart below that although the retail public has never been so aggressively short against the Euro, the longs remain at very low levels compared to previous times when Euro was at its high levels. This could be an indication of profit taking instead of aggressive selling.

But when the retail public, the same public that on average lose most of their money within 90 days, has so strong views about a certain outcome, I smell blood!

Can you imagine what will happen if the FED doesn’t begin tapering now? All these aggressive shorts will run for cover, strengthening the trend even further!

The same pattern occurs in the GBPUSD.

As GBP moves higher, all the retail traders are trying to call a top! And as the market moves higher, they run to cover, causing a stronger trend!

I hope this will become a valuable lesson for some of you, that you will avoid in the future.

Now the million dollar question is what do we do with these information? What should be our game plan for next week. Obviously the decision by the FED to taper or not will be the major event and the biggest catalyst in the market. Personally I don’t wish to speculate on the FED’s actions. That would be gambling and we are not gamblers.

I would keep a close eye on the Nikkei. If the Nikkei is strong, that would mean that US dollar is strong and I would look to buy USD strength and dips on the GBPJPY pair. If I see weakness in the Nikkei, then I would look for further JPY strength. It might sound boring, as a battle plan, but it is the safest that I can recommend at the moment.

If we didn’t have such important news next week and if it wasn’t the Christmas period I would tell you to look for potential Euro weakness as this currency has hit a 5 year trendline that is acting like strong resistance and also to look for a potential top in the EURJPY as the pair has hit an important Fibonacci resistance.

However it is not prudent to go against the trend simply because we have found a resistance point. We must wait for a consolidation pattern an indication that buyers are cut off! On the chart below you can see, EURUSD monthly chart. You can see it is only a few pips away from a very important 5 year resistance trendline. Let’s see how it behaves around that area and then act accordingly.

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Forex Income Engine is a forex trading course developed by a veteran trader, Bill Poulos. This man has created few trading methods in the past, and now is back again with a 2.0 version, claiming he made a new discovery. There will always be lot of hype around money making opporunities, and unfortunately Forex is not a game where you can play with money. So is the new FIE course really has potential to make you a successful trader. Here are few answers. & Gt; The claim of the course, are not so much full of hype. The goals you should achieve are the follow. triple your profit potential, start with a $500 account, get a custom trading plan, enjoy fast and frequent trades, eliminate huge losses and become an independent trader. Not something really new if you think about it. However, Bill Poulos gave few details of the course, revealing the private members area, showing live trades and explaining the trade management of each. And a nice thing to note. the system sometimes fails. How is it nice. Well, if it was full of hype you would have the claim of a 100% winning strategy, which we have to admit it, doesn't exist. But the trading approach focus on risk management first, be.

Can the Canadian Dollar recover this week?

Written by: PaxForex analytics dept - Tuesday, 07 April 2015 0 comments

The Canadian Dollar has stopped its massive sell-off over the past few weeks and was stuck in a narrow trading range especially against the US Dollar . The USDCAD was unable to breakout above 1.2834 and unable to breakdown below 1.2351. As far as technical indicators are pointing out there is no catalysts which could result in a strong enough move to result in either a breakout or a breakdown . The Fibonacci Retracement Levels are providing strong support and resistance .

Forex traders should look for fundamental reports to provide the catalyst for the next big move. This week will offer several reports which have the potential to increase momentum to a degree which can result in a breakout or breakdown. Several staggered reports pointing in the same directions are possible this week. On Monday the Ivey PMI for March was reported at 47.9. This level points towards a greater contraction than in February and therefore bearish news for the Canadian Dollar.

The Bank of Canada Senior Loan Officer Survey Index for the first-quarter came in at 6.7 which was much better than the -1.0 economists expected and far above the -2.7 which was reported in the fourth-quarter. The Business Outlook Future Sales Index for the first-quarter was reported at 4. Economists expected the index to come in at 0, but it was still far below the 8 reported in the fourth-quarter. The Canadian Dollar remained in the middle of its current range.

On Tuesday and Wednesday there are no economic news which can push this currency pair around and forex traders should be prepared for more sideways trading during those two days. This can be taken as a great opportunity to position forex portfolios for Thursday and Friday which will deliver some key economic reports which are likely to allow for a rally in the Canadian currency . On Thursday building permits for February will be released and economists expect an increase of 4.3%. Forex traders can compare this to January’s contraction of 12.9%.

Friday will feature the release of the Canadian employment report for March which is expected to show no job gains for the month. While this is not encouraging it is better than the 1,000 lost jobs reported in February. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 6.8%. A positive figure could just be strong enough to rally the Canadian Dollar which is also expected to receive a boost from housing starts . Economists expect an increase of 175,000 in March which forex traders can compare to the 156,300 reported in February.

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Principales Noticias Forex

Singapore Dollar Drops Large This Week

April 26, 2008 at 10:23 Singapore Dollar by Andriy Moraru

The Singapore currency had its worst week in a year on the Forex market, as it lost along with the other Asian currencies to the U. S. dollar, because the investors began to expect that the U. S. interest rate will unchanged rather than lowered next time.

The U. S. dollar rose from its record low bottom against the euro this week and appreciated significantly against eight of the ten most traded Asian currencies (except the Japanese yen). April 24 report on the durable goods showed an unexpected rise in the orders (excluding transportation vehicles) that helped the dollar to go up on Forex.

The uprise of the U. S. dollar and decline of the Singapore dollar (and of the other Asian currencies) is a reflection of the interest rate expectations rescaling. The chances for the 2.25% interest rate in U. S. to be unchanged on the April 30 meeting were zero last week according to the futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. This week the chances went up to 18%.

The Singapore dollar dropped from 1.3729 per U. S. dollar to 1.3633 this week — that’s 0.7%, the largest weekly decline for this Asian currency in 2008.

If you have any questions, comments or opinions regarding the Singapore Dollar, feel free to post them using the commentary form below.

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Forex Webinars This Week For New Traders – Currency Strength and Weakness for Wednesday 12th March 2014

Hi Forex Trader,

I make my suggestions every day based on where I see the market heading over the next 24 hours. Use my analysis below to aid your trading and to help you keep on the right side of the market.

My suggestions are posted by 6pm EST each day.

Overall there is strength in the JPY with minor strength in the USD and NZD.

Overall there is weakness in the AUD with minor weakness in the GBP.

Trading Directions I am favouring for the next 24 hours

Buy Trades – EUR/AUD

Sell Trades – EUR/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/USD, AUD/JPY, AUD/NZD, AUD/CAD, AUD/CHF

VERY IMPORTANT: These are not specific trades. Do not blindly place trades in the directions given below. Use your own trading strategy and look at taking setups that occur in the same direction as my daily analysis. If you don’t have your own trading strategy then email me here for some suggestions

FREE FOREX WEBINARS THIS WEEK FOR NEW FOREX TRADERS; click here for more details. There are 2 webinar times this week .

& # 8211; Andrew Mitchem The Forex Trading Coach Professional Forex Trader and Educator

From Dairy Farmer To FOREX TRADER

The Euro is under pressure this week.

March 5th, 2012 by Matthew Mocorro

The Euro is under pressure this week. On March 8th, Greece’s private investors will decide whether or not to accept a bond swap that could help prevent Greece from a messy default. If investors agree to this swap, they will forgive 53.5% of the principal and exchange remaining holdings for new government bonds and notes from the European Financial Stability Facility. This will be the biggest debt restructuring in history.

Greece’s second bailout package of 130 billion-euros is dependent on Greece’s private investors agreeing to the bond swap. The anticipation of the bond swap has already caused the Euro to fall nearly 2% against the US Dollar .

News events can create momentum in the Forex market. Educated Forex traders are able to know what to look for, how to prepare and how to react to these market movements.

Market Traders Institute prides itself in helping students prepare for such market movements through a variety of Forex tools, resources and support found within the Ultimate Traders Package on Demand. The five-phased, lifetime Forex education is geared to help traders develop their trading skills and become an effective Forex trader.

Learn how MTI’s Ultimate Traders Package on Demand could prepare you for such fundamental announcements. Attend a free webinar for more information. Register by completing the form below.

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TheForexRoom provides Forex signals and education in our Live Room. We produce hundreds of pips every week with low drawdown.

Our signals are straight forward and easy to follow. Every signal has an exact entry level, stop-loss and profit target.

And our moderators, Neil, Tim and Huzefa trade for a living and these are the same trades we take in our own live accounts.

Our strategies are tested, consistent and profitable.

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Forex Trading

Forex is the name of the biggest market in the world, which deals with trades of international currency. This Forex market functions non-stop during the week, with a pause during the weekend. In most cases, the Forex trading transactions are done by brokers and companies which specialize in this type of financial operation. Individuals can do Forex trading with the help of a Forex broker in most cases. The Forex trading allows sellers and buyers to trade currencies from different countries for one another, in order to make a profit from the fluctuations of the exchange rates. Over two thirds of all the Forex transactions in the world are done by large companies and banks, with individuals and small companies accounting for the rest.

A big part of the Forex trades are speculative in nature, as people are trying to make money from the volatility of these currencies. Their exchange rates can vary from one minute to another, so investors try to trade currencies when they have a low exchange rate and sell them when their price increases. Since there are no goods changing hands, the Forex trading is actually a barter, with currencies being compared to one another in pairs. If you want to sell Euro and you want USD in return, only the exchange rate of the two currencies is relevant for the transaction. Events can influence the exchange rates of currencies, from natural disasters to political decisions or wars. There are many things which can influence the exchange rate of a currency, so a professional Forex trader will spend a lot of time researching trends and learning about the economy of the countries which use the currencies which are traded.

Since the Forex market is global and doesn’t have a certain area where it’s traded, there is a huge amount of currency traded on it on a daily basis. There are trillions of dollars worth of currency traded here, so the liquidity of this market is enormous. It helps that this market uses all the free currencies in the world for its transactions. You can pick any of the many currencies represented on the market and trade with any other currency, as long as there is someone willing to buy or sell for that pair and exchange rate.

Since the market operates non-stop during the working week, even while you sleep, investors will do transactions in other parts of the world, or even in your country if they work during the night.

Small traders have plenty of benefits from the Forex market, including the fact that it changes quickly, so you have new chances of making a profit, as long as you can adapt. Another one is the fact that there is a mechanism in place which is well designed, in order to control how much risk you’re taking. The Forex market also allows you to make money both when a foreign market is falling or rising, so as long as you realize what it’s going to happen, you can profit from it. If you’re a small trader, you also have the option of checking out the many options with a zero commission for trading purposes.

Trading Forex is actually a form of speculation, so there will always be some risk involved. You can take some steps to make sure the risk is minimized, but in the end you are practically placing a bet that a currency will go either up or down, even though it’s usually a well founded and researched bet. Minimizing the risk can be done by having limits to just how much you invest and knowing how much of a loss you’re willing to have when the market goes the other way.

If you want to be as safe as possible when you’re trading Forex, make sure you know what you’re doing. Do the research when you’re deciding on an investment and know exactly why the exchange rate will go up or down in the future. If you know the mechanism which makes the Forex market work, it’s easier to make a profit from this type of trading.

It might take years before you make serious profits with Forex, so don’t think of it as a get rich quick scheme.

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